A merge of swine and avian flu viruses could lead to a far more virulent strain emerging, reports Reem Leila The H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine flu, is making inroads in Egypt since the first case was reported here at the beginning of the month. Worries are compounded by the prevalence of the H5N1 Avian Influenza virus, which appeared in Egypt in 2006 and has since established itself, defying all attempts at eradication. This year alone, dozens of bird flu cases have been confirmed. That the vast majority have been among toddlers has led to speculation that a less lethal version of H5N1 is passing unnoticed, infecting adults who show no symptoms but who then pass it on to infants. Abdel-Rahman Shahin, official spokesman at the Ministry of Health, warns that if patterns of infection in the southern hemisphere are repeated then Egypt can expect more cases of swine flu once the summer ends. Not only that, but the strain that does emerge in autumn and winter may well be different to that currently infecting people, a result of mutations in the virus that might occur in the southern winter. The World Health Organisation (WHO) assesses the danger posed by the current swine flu virus as moderate. But that, says Shahin, offers no grounds for complacency. And if, for the moment, the H5N1 strain of bird flu constitutes by far the greater challenge as far as Egypt is concerned -- Shahin points out that the "fatality percentage of H5N1 is 66 folds that of the H1N1 virus -- there is a very real possibility that the two viruses could merge, creating an entirely new strain. There are a number of possible scenarios: the H5N1 virus could merge with the H1N1 strain within the body of ducks, or a person carrying the H1N1 virus could come into contact with sick poultry. Scientists point out that the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918 to 1919 began as a mild strain of influenza that mutated in a year to become sufficiently virulent to kill more than 100 million people. "The H1N1 virus could mutate or merge with another virus and result in a lethal strain the impact of which is impossible to predict with any accuracy," says Shahin. Meanwhile, Hamed Samaha, head of the General Authority for Veterinary Services (GAVS), confirmed that the cull of Egypt's 300,000 pig population was completed on Monday. "Pigs are the ideal hosts for virus combinations. Only in pig tissue can human, bird and animal viruses combine," says Samaha. Samaha is also optimistic that rural families are at last refraining from rearing fowl in their homes. "The chance of any possible merger of viruses has been reduced," insists Samaha. The situation has also been improved by a doubling of the capacity of the nation's slaughter houses. Until recently they were able to handle only half of the birds being slaughtered. The efficacy of vaccination programmes targeting domestically reared birds are also being reassessed, though for the time being at least the vaccination of chickens will continue. Mona Mehrez, head of the Central Laboratory for Poultry Monitoring at the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, does not share Samaha's optimism. She is far from convinced that backyard poultry breeders are cutting back, and contradicts Samaha's statements regarding vaccination. "There are no poultry vaccines available in the country. Backyard poultry vaccination stopped several weeks ago after it was shown to have failed to contain the virus." In order to be effective, says Mehrez, vaccination of the country's backyard birds must take place at the same time, as should revaccination. "This has proved impossible. There are too few veterinarians and the majority of backyard breeders are dishonest. They hide half their birds. Yet unvaccinated birds pose a great threat to those that have been vaccinated. The vaccines provide only partial immunity with the result that symptoms in vaccinated fowl tend to be milder." The problem, says Mehrez, is that people become very lax when dealing with vaccinated fowl because they believe they are safe, which is not true. The only guaranteed way to end the problem and prevent swine and bird viruses merging is to cull all poultry. According to Mehrez, this might take place as soon as a realistic compensation scheme for poultry breeders is in place. "The ministry has prepared a draft law to create a compensation fund which should be presented to the People's Assembly for approval in November. Compensation will be based upon market prices," says Mehrez. Only then, she says, will poultry breeders report sick birds in time. "The kind of late reporting that happens now is redundant. By the time the authorities are alerted yet more poultry has been infected."
