Piracy continues to be a threat to global trade, argues Attia Essawi Despite the recent adventure of the 34 Egyptian sailors who managed to escape from Somali pirates' captivity, piracy will remain a threat to global trade, the lives of multinational crew, and oil tankers. Unless a solution is found to this problem these threats will remain and intensify. Somalia, the country that controls these vital sea lanes, has been in political turmoil and chaos since the fall of the Siad Barre regime in 1991. All efforts to create a centralised ruling system to control the Somali domestic situation and its 3,700km long coast have failed. Thus any attempts to prevent pirates from creating hideouts on the coast have proved unsuccessful. Pirates are said to have gained at least $100 million from ransom payments. They currently have 10 ships in their possession, with their cabin crews, awaiting ransom payment. The Somali pirates are posing a serious threat to global trade. More than 25 per cent of global oil exports passes through Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Also according to the International Navigation Authority (INA), 10 per cent of international trade moves through that region. The authority also warned that this naval route has become one of the most dangerous. Between December 2007 and September 2008, 63 of the 199 piracy incidents occurred in the Indian Ocean. Foreign warships helped reduce the number of incidents off the Somali coast, but in April 2009 a new wave of hijacking ships began. In less than two weeks, pirates managed to capture 11 vessels -- two of them were American. In the light of these circumstances, in which 22,000 vessels are threatened yearly, the UN Security Council announced that this naval route has become the most dangerous in the world. It also authorised countries to send warships into Somali waters, combat Somali pirates, and protect commercial vessels. The year 2008 witnessed one of the most prominent of vessel captures, the Saudi oil tanker carrying two million oil barrels, nearly a quarter of Saudi daily output, was taken by Somali pirates. The vessel was captured 860km off the Kenyan coast and was not released until a $3 million were paid as ransom. Another prominent incident was the capture of a Ukrainian ship cargo carrying military hardware, including grenade launchers and 33 Russian-made tanks, which was on its way to Mombasa, Kenya as part of an arms deal between Ukraine and Kenya. The cargo ship was released upon the payment of a hefty ransom. Nevertheless, it is very unlikely that these episodes will end with the further militarisation of Somali waters. The main impetus for these activities has not been addressed, which is the Somali domestic crisis. The political chaos, high unemployment rates and increased poverty all push Somali youth into taking up this illegal job. These youth have little alternative, as the country lacks any police force or naval vessels. Interestingly, most of these pirates are experienced former naval soldiers from the dissembled Somali army of the Barre regime. To combat piracy, the Obama administration announced a comprehensive plan focussed on increasing job opportunities, enhancing political stability in Somalia, alongside pursuing pirates by bringing them to justice and freezing their bank accounts. He also outlined the importance of enhancing vessel defences, making their capture more difficult. Somali pirates have increased in strength in the last few months. They have increased in number too. They also now possess advanced weaponry, and have the capabilities to detect vessels from their take off from the Arab Gulf. The next few months could witness a new rise in attacks. Only last week Somali pirates attempted to capture a Turkish commercial vessel, only to be stopped by a German warship. On the Arab front, a number of Red Sea and Gulf countries met to "coordinate thinking and ideas". They agreed to set up a joint manoeuvres, piracy monitoring system and warning system. These activities would focus on the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean to secure trade routes and ensure safety of passing commercial vessels. Participating countries include Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Jordan, Sudan, Yemen and Djibouti. Ending piracy attacks will not come by military means only. What is needed is systematic support for the re-establishment of Somali police, armed forces, navy, and intelligence agency. This can be achieved through international funding and training. It is also important to empower tribal chiefs to influence armed groups to stop their war against government forces. Furthermore, serious efforts should be made to resolve the Eritrean-Ethiopian conflict. The piracy problem and Somali political turmoil has repercussions on neighbouring Arab and African countries and major powers alike. The turmoil has risks globally. For the United States, the risk is having Somalia as the new haven for Al-Qaeda and a base for attacks on Western targets. There are also fears of the establishment of an extremist Islamic state in Mogadishu that could be a threat to neighbouring countries. According to the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the numbers of Al-Qaeda fighters alongside opposition armed groups is on the increase and is estimated to be around 250-300 fighters. It also stated that recent bombings that led to the killing of the Somali interior minister, ambassador to Ethiopia, Mogadishu's chief of police, a member of Somali parliament, and several other military leaders, all had clear Al-Qaeda imprints on them. It also seems that some extremist groups such as the Somali Youth (Al-Shabab) Movement, have a global dimension that transcends Somali land. This movement for instance, recently announced that they will continue to fight the government until the overthrow of Somali government, the establishment of an Islamic state in the world and the liberations of Jerusalem in Palestine. These are all indication of a serious global threat coming from Somali land. It is for that reason that the United States has acted decisively to supply the Sheikh Sharif government with 40 tonnes of weaponry and promised a similar size. It also decided to train dozens of officers and soldiers from the government forces in its Djibouti military bases. It also made further funds available to support and strengthen Somali government forces. The United States also encouraged neighbouring countries to support and assist Sharif's government in face of Al Shabab's continued attack on government forces. On the other hand, France also followed US footsteps in training members of Somali government forces in its military in Djibouti. Alongside training, Ethiopia supplied further weaponry to Sharif's security agencies. The support from both neighbouring and Western countries has had its impact on the ground. This support was shown in the forces' ability to face the insurgents' attack on the presidential palace in January 2009. The insurgents had to withdraw despite being only 1km away from the palace. Furthermore, Burundi's decision to send a further 850 soldiers to compliment the already 4,800 troops there will hopefully entice other African countries to follow suit. Despite these efforts, it is only predictable that the guerrilla warfare of hit and run against government forces will continue without any side coming out victorious. On the other hand, the armed guerrillas receive continued support from Eritrea and trained personnel by Al-Qaeda. Somali violence caused the death of 500,000 people. What is required is a political solution that is acceptable to all parties. This will not occur without a suitable international climate that brings Somalis together on the negotiation table using a strategy of compensation and retribution to ensure agreement. The United States involvement is also conditional to any conflict resolution. It has to ensure that the conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia is resolved with annexing the disputed upon Badme town to Eritrea.
