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More dangerous than war
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 17 - 09 - 2009

Not overly impressed by the snail's pace of the Middle East peace talks, Doaa El-Bey turned to the very fluid events surrounding swine flu
The decision to postpone schools for a week and the noticeable increase of cases raised the degree of fear of swine flu. Newspaper front pages described the possible consequences. Akhbar Al-Yom wrote, 'Swine horror overwhelms the world, electronic education is an alternative to going to schools and universities'.
Al-Ahram said, ' Hajj could be cancelled any time as a result of swine flu'; Al-Wafd : 'WHO recommends closing schools before the spread of swine flu'; Al-Ahrar blared, 'Masked students are coming' and quoted Minister of Health Hatem El-Gabali as saying 'Cancelling pilgrimage is possible if the disease spreads'. In Al-Masry Al-Yom, 'A plan to close universities in January and February and continue the academic year in summer'.
Refaat Fayyad warned in the official weekly Akhbar Al-Yom that we should get ready for a war against swine flu. Although the writer is not in favour of exaggeration in confronting any crisis or danger, he is also against underestimating the danger. The virus known as H1N1 which is the cause of swine flu is not dangerous; it is even weaker than the normal flu virus. However, its danger lies in the possibility that it may mutate into a deadly virus that no antibiotic or other treatment can fight, and the mortality rate could skyrocket.
Given that we are in a real crisis, Fayyad added, we should espouse a "crisis management" plan to deal with illness. All the bodies of the state should be prepared to deal with swine flu in case it turns into a disaster. We should prepare all citizens and the media has a big role in that respect. Fayyad suggested that the government should use appropriate scientific methods, especially if millions of patients become infected with the virus during the next few months.
The writer said he believed that unless we prepare public opinion in a calm scientific manner, chaos would break out in the entire society, especially that everywhere in Egypt is crowded -- in schools, universities, factories, streets, clubs and public transportation. "In other words, we should prepare ourselves to face swine flu as if we are going to war, because the consequences of the disease could be more dangerous than that of war," Fayyad wrote.
Abdallah Abdel-Salam chose to focus on a rather important issue in the fight against swine flu: the role of the local authorities. He wrote that on the eve of the upcoming battle with the disease, there is no doubt that the official slogans raised for years about supporting decentralisation and the modernisation of local administrations were nothing but ink on paper. Decision-making in Egypt has not changed; it is still issued from the central government, and the rest of the country implements it.
A few days ago, the education minister said that closing schools in case of the outbreak of the disease was vested in the authority of the governors. But the health minister outlined central regulations for closing schools, which put authority in the hands of the central government again.
"The real test has not yet come and one cannot assess now how effective the precautionary measures will be in confronting the virus, but evidence indicates that we deal with local authorities as if they are inefficient or do not exist at all. They will remain so as long as the government views them that way," Abdel-Salam wrote in the official daily Al-Ahram.
Essam Kamal satirically wrote in Al-Ahrar, the mouthpiece of the Ahrar opposition party, that the government's decision to postpone the start of the school year for a week has only one meaning: our genius government will discover all the solutions needed during that one week!
Ahmed Ayoub expressed fear that the government is underestimating the dangers of swine flu, or else it would not have taken the decision to postpone the school year for only a week. It is an indication that the government has not carefully studied the possible scenarios for starting the school year on 3 October.
He regarded that the restrictions that Egypt is taking to protect students from the disease as insufficient. According to the ministers' statements, Ayoub added, these restrictions include regular cleaning of school toilets, reducing the number of students in each class and dividing the school day into two sessions. However, any medical specialist will realise that these restrictions would not stop or contain the spread of the disease.
"Nobody would blame the government if it decides to postpone schools till January or even close them or take any tough measures it sees as needed to protect our children," Ayoub wrote in the independent daily Nahdet Masr.
He summed up by advising the government to carefully study the possibility of postponing schools for more than a week because one week is not enough to take the needed measures to start the school year.
Abdel-Hadi Mesbah agreed with Ayoub that schools should be postponed for over a week. He suggested in the independent daily Al-Masry Al-Yom that schools remain closed until December so that the status of the disease would be clearer and the vaccine would be checked as safe.
In a scientific and pragmatic approach to the problem, Mesbah focussed on two points: we cannot say that the virus is weak because nothing can guarantee that it would not mutate into a more dangerous virus in winter. This was in addition to overpopulation in many areas; the bad habits of some Egyptians who spit on the street and do not regularly wash their hands; limited budgets for medication and the absence of a healthy infrastructure.
Second, although the Ministry of Health seems to be taking the right scientific approach, the next stage is more difficult and unless there is complete cooperation between the ministry and the governors, the crisis will worsen.
Thus Mesbah concluded that difficult decisions that may annoy some people like cancelling the hajj and postponing schools need to be taken.
The problem of garbage collection in Giza is getting better thanks to the personal effort of a group of young people who decided to remove the garbage themselves. But given that this is a temporary solution and that the Italian garbage collection company which resumed its work this week threatened to go on strike again, the problem will soon arise, again.
Mohamed El-Refaei satirically wrote that Giza became the Arab capital of garbage and the parties exchanged accusations over who was responsible for such a state. The Giza governor accused the Italian company of not wanting to work and the company accused the government of failing to pay it some LE50 million. Until that conflict is resolved Giza will raise the slogan "keep your garbage safe", El-Refaei concluded in the weekly Sawt Al-Umma.


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