Delayed elections will not resolve the deep national crisis facing the Palestinians, Khaled Amayreh reports from Ramallah Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to formally announce the postponement of Palestinian general elections until further notice. One PA official close to Abbas was quoted this week as saying that Abbas had no choice but to delay the polls. "The president has reached the conclusion that it is impossible to hold elections without the Gaza Strip. We are also not sure if Israel would allow the people of Jerusalem to participate in the elections." A few weeks ago, Abbas issued a decree calling for "presidential and legislative elections" to be held in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip on 24 January 2010. However, a standoff in reconciliation efforts between Fatah and Hamas, and especially a seemingly hopeless peace process with Israel, eventually prompted the PA leader to announce that he wouldn't take part in the upcoming elections. In a series of recent interviews with Arab and foreign media, Abbas emphasised that his decision was no bluff and that he was likely to end his political career. "Perhaps they [the elections] will be delayed by a year, or less, I don't know. What I am saying now is that I will not be a candidate," the PA leader said during an interview with the BBC Arabic Service. Abbas said the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) leadership would take unspecified "measures" to avoid a constitutional vacuum when his term of office expires on 25 January 2010. The PLO leadership, including Fatah, has been trying in vain to convince Abbas to reconsider his decision. Fatah leaders said they wouldn't choose a successor to Abbas, which would further exacerbate a political and constitutional crisis facing both the PA and the PLO, endangering the continued survival of the former. Attempting to deal with the mounting crisis, the PLO Central Committee is expected to hold an important meeting in the middle of December. According to Fatah officials, the committee, which occupies an intermediate status between the Palestinian National Council (PNC) and the PLO Executive Committee, will try hard to change Abbas's mind vis-à-vis his intention to resign. However, in case Abbas insisted on leaving, which is widely expected, the Central Committee would take "far-reaching decisions" including dissolving the Hamas-controlled -- but effectively paralysed -- Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) as well as empowering the PLO to assume many of the key functions and powers of the PA -- the Western-backed government of Salam Fayyad. The dissolution of the PLC, which is a de facto Palestinian parliament, could be fraught with complications. The council, an elected body, is an integral part of the self rule authority, and dissolving it without dissolving the entire PA structure would be interpreted by Hamas as a hostile act by Fatah aimed first and foremost at the Islamic group. "An unelected body can't dissolve an elected body," Ahmed Bahr, deputy speaker of the PLC said. The same remark has been made repeatedly by Aziz Duweik, PLC speaker. It is not clear as yet what retaliatory measures Hamas would take against Fatah and the PLO in case the Central Committee decided to dissolve the PLC. What is clear is that the ensuing crisis, if such a decision was made, would seriously worsen the existing crisis. Azzam Al-Ahmed, a senior Fatah leader, expressed the fear that Abbas's departure from public life would "plunge the Palestinian leadership and people into a real crisis". "If the president doesn't backtrack [on his decision not to run in the next elections], this would lead to the total collapse of the Palestinian Authority and not only its dismantlement," Ahmed told the Jerusalem-based Arabic newspaper, Al-Quds. In recent weeks, conflicting indications have come from Hamas as to the future of the Egyptian-mediated national reconciliation efforts. The Gaza-based leaders of the Islamic movement have been affirming Hamas's desire to reach an agreement with Fatah as soon as possible. Some spokespersons even predicted that Hamas would sign the Egyptian- formulated document after the Eid Al-Adha holiday. However, some of Hamas's leaders based outside occupied Palestine have indicated that reconciliation with Fatah is still a long way off. They argued that the current atmosphere in the occupied Palestinian territories, especially in the West Bank, was by no means conducive to holding elections. In a related development, the Egyptian government has invited "the National Reconciliation Committee", which is made up of non-partisan Palestinian intellectuals and community leaders, to Cairo to discuss Hamas's reservations and observations about the draft reconciliation document. A committee member, Iyad Al-Sarraj, a neuro-psychiatrist from Gaza, spoke optimistically about the prospects of Hamas signing the document in the near future. The head of the committee, Yasser Wadiya, pointed out that reconciliation efforts would be resumed after Eid Al-Adha. He was quoted by Maan News Agency as saying that delegates, in coordination with Egypt, would provide guarantees and adopt confidence-building assurances to reach a final agreement. Meanwhile, the propaganda war between the two sides continues unabated. Abbas, for his part, has been reiterating accusations that Hamas has been holding "secret talks" with Israel in Geneva, saying the movement was in no position to claim "a moral high ground". The accusations, vehemently denied by Hamas, seem to lack credibility unless Abbas and his aides were referring to German-mediated indirect talks about a possible prisoner swap deal between Israel and Hamas. Fatah is particularly worried that the release by Israel of hundreds of Palestinian leaders from Israeli prisons in exchange for the release by Hamas of captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit would be a huge popularity booster for Hamas. This explains the fact that PA officials have been trying to belittle as much as possible the significance of the prospective deal lest it strengthen Hamas and weaken Fatah. Fatah spokespersons have been attacking Hamas for allegedly agreeing to Israeli demands that an undisclosed number of would-be released Palestinian prisoners would be sent abroad for a number of years. Hamas has not confirmed reports in this regard. Fatah is also worried that the release by Israel of PLO leaders such as Marwan Al-Barghouti, a potential successor to Abbas, and Ahmed Saadat, head of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), would leave Fatah indebted to Hamas and could block Abbas were he to renege on his threat to quit politics.
