Despite its belligerence, Tel Aviv's ability to launch another full-scale war against Gaza is largely curtailed, writes Saleh Al-Naami With a mother's instinct, Rehab grabbed her three-year- old daughter Arwa and ran out of the bedroom and into the living room after the sound of a loud explosion rocked the house. The Israelis were targeting an ironsmith's workshop after midnight on Saturday. The bombing brought back memories to Rehab, who lives in Berket Al-Wez district west of Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp in the centre of the Gaza Strip, of the horrific war Israel waged on Gaza almost one year ago. Hours passed before Rehab was able to calm Arwa, while thankfully her husband and five other children slept through the racket. The Israeli army claims that Palestinian resistance fighters were using the workshop to make missiles, a claim vehemently denied by Palestinian spokesmen. The attack came at a time when senior Israeli officials continue to threaten military action in the Gaza Strip, especially targeting Hamas. These threats come in the wake of claims by chief Israeli intelligence officer Amos Yadlin during recent testimony before the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee that Hamas succeeded in test-firing a missile with a 60- kilometre range. The ruling Israeli elite, along with Israeli commentators connected to decision-making circles in Tel Aviv, believes that with such a rocket Hamas would be able to target Tel Aviv and its suburbs -- home to more than 1.5 million Israelis. These areas also house vital strategic and economic infrastructures. What complicates matters further for Israel is the realisation that it would be impossible to protect residents in these areas. The Israeli army's Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi threatened a bombing campaign against Gaza, and Israeli Public Radio quoted Deputy Minister of Defence Matan Vilnai as saying that security circles are preparing for a two-pronged plan of attack and defence, in case Hamas is able to acquire long range missiles. "The movement [Hamas] is preparing for confrontation in the future," Vilnai said. Meanwhile, the widely read Yediot Aharonot newspaper said that the Israeli military is not debating whether or not to attack Gaza, but when to do it. Alex Fishman, who is closely connected to decision-making circles in Tel Aviv, wrote in the newspaper that it is probable that confrontation could begin on a large scale, nearly one year after the last war. Fishman asserted that the countdown for the war began on 19 November when Yadlin announced that Hamas tested a missile that could reach Tel Aviv. The writer further claimed that Hamas's recent test came in response to the events of the last war. The pressing question now is whether Israel is serious about carrying out its threats or whether this is just a manoeuvre to achieve goals on other fronts. Many Palestinian observers believe that Israel views Hamas's acquisition of missiles that could reach the heart of Israel as a grave threat. They list a number of reasons, however, as to why Israel would not launch a massive military campaign on the Gaza Strip in the near future. They state that on the eve of the last war, Israel announced it was launching its attacks to end arms smuggling and to obliterate Hamas's arsenal. Today, 10 months after that war ended, it is saying that Hamas has acquired longer-range missiles than it possessed during the last war. Hence, launching a war on the basis of obliterating Hamas's weapons capabilities is hardly credible. Many commentators in Israel have reached the same conclusion. At the same time, launching a war on the Gaza Strip would erode the deterrence that Israel achieved during the previous war. Hamas would bombard deep into Israel, which would bring into question the purpose of previous and future Israeli military campaigns. It would also prove the futility of military options in dealing with Hamas. Another war would also change Israel's priorities at a time when Israel is primarily occupied with the threat posed by Iran's nuclear programme, which Tel Aviv views as the most serious threat to its existence. In addition, in light of the Goldstone Report, Israel has come to realise that its room for military manoeuvres against Gaza and Hamas has become limited. A number of notable commentators in Israel asserted that the Goldstone Report would influence any future war against Israel. According to Yediot Aharonot senior analyst Naom Barnea, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has reached the conclusion that Israel could only undertake brief wars in the future. Barnea stated: "Netanyahu has realised that the longer the war, the more burdens Israel will face the next day. Israel will face many tribulations from international public opinion." He continued: "Netanyahu appears to be in agreement with Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who during the war on Gaza called for a humanitarian ceasefire, which was opposed by then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni who insisted on continued military action." Barnea reported that in private conversations Barak insists that if his proposal was implemented the Goldstone Committee would not have been created and public opinion around the world would not have been so outraged at Israel. Also in Yediot Aharonot, commentator Sever Plotzker argued that although the war on Gaza was viewed as a success, Israel is now facing a "destructive backlash in all aspects". Plotzker believes that the Goldstone Report "will forever be engraved in the conscience of Western intellectuals and the minds of the Arab and Muslim masses as portraying Israelis as monstrous creatures who have no place among civilised peoples". What makes matters worse for Israel, according to this analyst, is the fanatic right-wing government in power dragging down the country's standing in the world to rock bottom. Plotzker pointed to tensions with Turkey, the pursuit of Israeli officers across Europe, and the campaign to boycott Israeli products in Europe. Haaretz political writer Aluf Benn described the status quo as "the tip of the iceberg heralding the end of Israel's legitimacy". Benn added: "Israel has not learnt that the rules of engagement in the Middle East have changed since the arrival of US President Barack Obama in the White House. Unlike the war on Lebanon in 2006, which ended in a ceasefire, the war on Gaza continues as a war of diplomacy and public opinion. Israel must face repercussions in the age of Obama, which is less friendly than George Bush's era." Assertions that circumstances will not allow Israel to launch a war are further supported by Hamas officials who argue there is agreement amongst Palestinian factions not to use missiles to attack Jewish settlements bordering Gaza. Fathi Hammad, minister of interior in the Hamas government, told reporters at the Palestinian Media Forum Saturday that, "the Palestinian factions have agreed not to carry out any resistance activities using missiles in the coming phase." But Hammad warned that, "If Israel advances or invades, the option to respond is open."
