The Syrian conundrum is the litmus test of the Arab Spring. The Syrian crisis will either extricate or kill the Arab Spring. If Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad survives, then the hopes of democracy activists in the country and the region at large will be dashed. The region is destined to go through a rough period. The uprisings are incomplete and will take time to coalesce into properly functioning democracies. If the Syrian regime crumbles, it will have serious regional implications. Iran's influence in the region will be relegated to Iraq, or southern Iraq to be precise. Proxy groups like Lebanon's Hizbullah will undoubtedly be weakened, that is if they do not disappear altogether. In that case, the influence of Turkey will increase tremendously and its political prestige will soar. Russia, too, will be among the big losers if Al-Assad's regime collapses. For starters, it will fail to hang on to its chief Mediterranean military outpost, the Syrian port of Tartous. The intriguing paradox is that the United States will not necessarily gain at the expense of Russia's and Iran's loss. On the contrary, the region might prove to be more volatile and Israel will no longer be able to claim that it is the only democracy in the region and therefore Washington will have no excuse for its unlimited support for Israel. What no one in the region wants is for it to be divided along Sunni- Shia sectarian lines. That will play into Israel's interest. Iran and its ally Iraq will become the apology for American interventionism and a pretext to for Israel to meddle in Arab affairs. It is time to diffuse the Syrian time bomb. The Arab Spring looked so promising at this point last year. What has happened? Leaving aside Egypt's myriad troubles and the ongoing rape of Libya, it is Syria that is suffering the greatest disappointment to both its diverse citizens and to observers from Washington through Cairo to Moscow, Istanbul and on to Tehran and Beijing. Accusations fly back and forth. Claims and counter-claims of war crimes by the Baathist government and its powerful military under the minority Alawite control, and charges fired back by Syria's establishment that Western powers are in league with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf to destroy Syria through inciting a full-scale civil war. Both sides are refusing to blink; lines are drawn. Turkish-Western attempts to impose a settlement via the United Nations Security Council failed. And, the Arab League's faltering attempts ended in confusion, as the League once again showed its weakness and the outsize influence of the tiny Gulf monarchies and Saudi Arabia, with an agenda to transform the Arab Spring into a lethargic Arab Gulf summer. Former UN chief Kofi Anan's attempt to achieve a ceasefire seems to have failed as the Free Syrian Army refuses to disarm to allow Syrian Army tanks to withdraw from cities. There has been no massive abandonment of the government as occurred in Egypt and Tunisia, prompting these leaders to flee in disgrace. Nor has the army, even more closely aligned with the ruling party due to its tribal affiliations, shown any signs of wavering. There is little the outside world can do to improve the situation. There is much it can do to make it far, far worse. The West, in consultation with the Arab League, the Russians, Chinese, and yes, the Iranians should immediately propose a complete arms embargo on Syria at the UN Security Council. This is the only resolution that can pass unanimously. Why wasn't it proposed before? This is a troubling question that our representative in the Arab League should be addressing to his American and European colleagues at the soonest possible moment. Let the Syrians work this out themselves.
