The endgame has started for the Syrian regime, writes Dina Ezzat The regime of Syria's President Bashar Al-Assad may be in denial but the writing is on the wall. The end is coming, later rather than sooner, but inevitable nonetheless. Such is the assessment of Arab, Western and other diplomats that spoke to Al-Ahram Weekly. In the words of one: "There is no uncertainty left. Bashar has to go. What concerns us most at the moment is who will replace him, and how to ensure that regime change in Syria does not open the doors to chaos in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region." "Everybody is aware that it has become impossible for the Syrian president to stay in office. The Egyptian authorities, like many others, are asking questions about post-Bashar Syria." Both Washington and Paris, say diplomats, have given the nod to diplomatic and political processes that will conclude with the removal from power of Bashar and the Al-Assad clan. They may step down and seek asylum in some other country, or stay put and face the wrath of their people. It is hoped that accelerated communications with Syrian opposition factions, and between the factions themselves, will lead to a formula for transition that can accommodate the concerns of all parties. Egypt and Israel will want an alternative that does not shake the current strategic set-up, which precludes military action to liberate the Israeli occupied Golan Heights; Lebanon and Iraq are seeking guarantees there will be no intervention in their internal affairs. Western capitals and Israel will want a replacement that ends Syrian support of Iran, of Hamas in the occupied Palestinian territories and Hizbullah in Lebanon. A leading opposition figure, speaking on condition of anonymity, says several factions within the still fragmented opposition are willing to offer the guarantees required by Syria's neighbours and other concerned states. "We are examining our options. I think we are almost ready to form a coalition of most opposition groups, in Syria and in exile," he said. Representatives of key in-exile opposition groups are due to meet at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League next week to discuss post-Bashar Syria scenarios. "He might not have to come to terms with it yet but his days are numbered. We are already working with the secretariat of the Arab League, and with concerned capitals, on the nature of transition in Syria," said another opposition figure. Saturday's Arab League foreign ministers meeting not only adopted a resolution suspending the participation of Syrian delegations in meetings of the foreign ministers council but also signalled its intention to host a meeting with the Syrian opposition. The agenda was being contemplated on Wednesday by Arab foreign ministers, Turkey's foreign minister and the Arab League secretary-general on the fringe of an Arab Turkish cooperation meeting in Rabat. According to diplomats close to the discussion the key item on the agenda will be to determine ways to ensure Syria is never again controlled by a single faction as it has been by the Alawites, under Hafez Al-Assad from 1970 to 2000, and his son Bashar from 2000 till now. Fearing ties with Iran Sunni ruled Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, are also demanding guarantees that Syria's Shia are held in check. Turkey, faced with Kurdish separatist demands, will want to prevent the consolidation of Kurdish influence in any future set-up. Diplomats following the Syrian file say it is going to take months before an alternative to the Al-Assad regime is ready but a balanced combination is already emerging. Increasing defections from the Syrian army, they argue, auger well for the political set-up that is being assembled. "We have no illusions. We know that the transition in Syria will not be easy and that even as we formulate the alternative we are going to face serious challenges with getting this alternative formula to work on the ground. Whatever the case, Bashar's end is round the corner," said a Western diplomat. It is this Western certainty that helped prompt the change in the language and positions of the Arab countries that met on Friday evening and Saturday afternoon in Cairo and adopted a resolution that effectively issued the Syrian president with an ultimatum. Syrian diplomats who took part in the meeting at the Arab League blamed Qatar for their growing isolation. They accused the Gulf state of "acting as a facilitator for the US in the region". Only Yemen, whose regime is also faced with upheaval, and Lebanon, whose government is closely associated with Syrian regime, rejected the Arab League resolution demanding protection for Syrian civilians and the recall of Arab ambassadors to Damascus. Iraq expressed reservations on the resolution, abstaining for what one Iraqi diplomat said were obvious reasons, "fear of antagonising the Syrian regime that could start unrest in Iraq". The six Arab Gulf states declined a call made Sunday by Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Al-Muallim for an Arab summit to discuss developments in Syria. No other Arab country has expressed interest in a summit being convened. Jordan's King Abdullah, a close US ally, said on Monday that were he in the shoes of the Syrian president he would have already stepped down. Turkey is openly threatening more sanctions against Syria following the suspension of cooperation in petroleum projects and a partial halt in electricity exports. Ankara has said on more than one occasion that the Syrian regime will pay a heavy price for its continued violent repression of demonstrators. What that price is, says one Turkish diplomat, is obvious: an end to the regime of Bashar Al-Assad and the rule of the Alawites. (see pp.8-9)
