By seeking the presidency the Muslim Brotherhood is rewriting the interim period's political scenarios, writes Amira Howeidy Five days on and the political earthquake caused by the Muslim Brotherhood's nomination of Khairat El-Shater for the presidency has yet to subside. The Brotherhood's deputy supreme guide -- now resigned -- is still making headlines as pundits pore over both the candidate and the group's decision to compete for Egypt's top job. Though El-Shater has yet to make a public appearance the media's fixation on him testifies to both the Brotherhood's weight in post-revolution Egypt and the absence of any counterbalancing political force. It is the first time in the Brotherhood's 84-year-old history that it has received such blanket exposure and while for now it may be basking in the limelight, it is likely to find itself in a tight corner, and sooner rather than later. Two months ahead of presidential elections that should signal an end to military rule and it is becoming increasingly clear Egypt's political complexities will render the transition anything but smooth. The public has no idea whether or not the military council approves of El-Shater's candidacy. If the generals are against it, the Brotherhood could end up in a confrontation with the military, something both sides have appeared keen on avoiding since Mubarak's ouster. If El-Shater has the green light from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) it will only confirm growing suspicions that the Brotherhood and military have cut a deal, begging questions about the nature of any guarantees offered by the Brotherhood to the generals. Rumours are rife that Hosni Mubarak's chief General Intelligence officer Omar Suleiman is preparing to stand, either as the military's response to El-Shater or in an attempt to reinstate the old regime. If he wins, which seems unlikely unless the vote is massively rigged, the Brotherhood will be blamed for fielding El-Shater. If El-Shater wins the Muslim Brothers will have a monopoly on power -- a parliamentary majority, control of the assembly drafting the new constitution, and their own man occupying the office of the president of the republic. They will also inherit the problems of a faltering economy, a security vacuum and draconian security apparatus. It is unlikely they will be able to deliver tangible improvements economically and address the security situation soon enough to head off criticism from a public that wants solutions, and wants them now. The scepticism that greeted El-Shater's nomination is, at least on the surface, a reaction to the Brothers breaking their repeated promises not to field a presidential candidate. The leadership was so adamant that they would not do so that it expelled one of its most popular figures, Abdel-Meneim Abul-Fotouh, when he insisting on running. But underlying the backlash is growing concern that, despite endless reassurances that this is not the case, the Muslim Brotherhood is seeking to dominate the Egyptian state. Mahdi Akef, the group's former supreme guide, has publicly spoken against the nomination. Akef is also a member of the group's Shura Council which on 31 March voted for El-Shater's nomination with 56 in favour and 52 against. Brotherhood MP Mohamed El-Beltagui published a short commentary on El-Shater's candidacy on his Facebook page, warning that the group had fallen into a "trap" by proposing a presidential candidate. "I'm extremely worried about the future of the country and the Islamic project" which is now "threatened by failure", El-Beltagui wrote. Speaking to Al-Ahram Weekly on Tuesday El-Beltagui said the Muslim Brotherhood is "not yet ready" to shoulder the responsibility of ruling Egypt. "Instead of advancing in stages and taking the time to consolidate before moving on, we're faced with the possibility of a public fiasco, having taken everything in one step." El-Beltagui is also concerned that in the absence of a political alternative to the Brotherhood, should the group fail "the military will emerge as the alternative, or perhaps a political force supported by the Americans". In a press conference on Saturday FJP Secretary-General Mahmoud Hussein struggled to explain why the Brotherhood had reversed its stand on fielding a candidate. None of the existing candidates, he said, met the Brotherhood's criteria, and the group's attempts to persuade figures it felt it could support to stand all failed. It was a performance few found convincing. It is unclear how El-Shater's nomination is playing out within the group. Insiders say many will support the decision out of loyalty while questioning the wisdom of a U-turn that inevitably damages the group's credibility. But according to Guidance Bureau member Ali Beshr, any talk of a division within the Brotherhood is "exaggerated" and "unrealistic". Beshr rejects accusations that the Brothers are seeking to monopolise the executive and legislative branches of state. "Where is this monopoly exactly? We have a parliamentary majority, but there's a dysfunctional cabinet with which we have nothing to do and that [SCAF] refuses to reshuffle," he told the Weekly. Prime Minister Kamal El-Ganzouri, Beshr charges, issued a point blank threat to the Brotherhood, telling them that parliament could be dissolved through a court ruling "he said he has in his drawer" annulling the People's Assembly on the grounds that the mixed list and individual election system was unconstitutional. "We're not empowered to do much now. We're expected to wait till a new president is elected before a new cabinet is formed. It was our responsibility to act." Beshr's statement of the Brotherhood's party line does little to clarify the increasingly murky political waters. The one thing El-Shater's nomination does show is that the Brotherhood is not a monolith. Not only are there differences inside the organisation -- think only of the 56-52 Shura Council vote and the public expressions of concern by Brotherhood leaders about its ramifications -- it is also the only political force capable of presenting two serious presidential contenders. Abul-Fotouh may have been expelled from the group but he, as much as El-Shater, is a product of the Brotherhood school. On the ground the group is throwing its weight behind El-Shater's nomination. The Brotherhood's website Ikhwan Online now opens on a blue page with El-Shater's photo above the phrase "El-Shater for president". A link below the image leads to the main website. El-Shater's election campaign is, according to reports, being headed by a wealthy businessman member of the Guidance Bureau. A huge team from the Freedom and Justice Party is putting together El-Shater's election programme. Nominations for the presidency close on 8 April. Anything could happen till then.
