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Little end in sight
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 02 - 02 - 2012

Sunni MPs may be back in the Iraqi parliament, but this does not mean the country's political crisis is over, writes Salah Nasrawi
A month after they walked out of parliament in protest over their alleged marginalisation by the Shia-led government, members of Iraq's Sunni-backed political coalition ended their boycott on Tuesday, saying they wanted to give reconciliation a chance.
The decision by the majority Sunni Iraqiya bloc to return to parliament may have eased a political drama that has increased fears of civil war in Iraq, but it has nevertheless still raised questions about whether it will end Iraq's latest sectarian crisis, which erupted after the withdrawal of the last US forces from the country in December.
Leaders of the bloc, which won the most seats in Iraq's last parliamentary elections, said on Sunday that they had ended the boycott of parliament in order to pave the way to a proposed national conference later this month aiming to resolve the stand-off.
Iraqiya spokesperson Maysoon Al-Damlouji described the decision as "a goodwill gesture" aimed to create "a healthy atmosphere to help the national conference, and to seek guarantees for the conference to succeed and defuse the political crisis."
However, he also said that the bloc's leaders had not decided whether to end a separate boycott of cabinet meetings by its nine ministers, which has thus far paralysed Shia Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki's government.
The Iraqiya bloc, headed by former Shia prime minister Iyad Allawi, won 91 seats in the country's March 2010 elections, but was then out-maneuvered by Al-Maliki's coalition to join a so-called "national partnership government" that also included the Kurds.
Soon afterwards, the government became deadlocked as the partners failed to work out a power-sharing agreement and became mired in disputes over decision-making and the control of state resources, army and police.
Since the US-led invasion toppled the Sunni-controlled regime of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in 2003, the country's Shia majority has managed to entrench itself in power in the Arab-dominated southern and central parts of Iraq, leaving Sunni Muslims feeling marginalised.
Sunni disenchantment grew after the American withdrawal, with members of the country's Sunni community fearing discrimination at the hands of Shias, who showed signs of consolidating their new-found political power.
Their fears rose after the government arrested dozens of Sunnis accused of being remnants of the Saddam regime and fired others from their jobs.
Iraq's Sunnis are also worried that the country's Shia-led government has allied itself too closely with neighbouring Shia Iran, a historical enemy of Sunni Arabs.
The latest political row erupted last month when al-Maliki's government ordered the arrest of the country's Sunni vice-president on charges of running a death squad. It also asked the parliament to fire a Sunni deputy prime minister who had described Al-Maliki as a "dictator", and "worse than Saddam Hussein".
Vice President Tariq Al-Hashemi and Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutlak are both senior members of the Iraqiya bloc. Al-Hashemi denied any wrongdoing and fled to northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region to avoid detention.
The coalition responded to Al-Maliki's moves by boycotting parliament and the cabinet and accused him of trying to centralise power in the hands of the National Alliance, Iraq's main Shia bloc.
The row has pitted the Shia-led government against the country's Sunni community, leaving many Sunnis opting for a federal structure and stoking sectarian tensions. It has also been accompanied by a surge in bombings and other attacks mainly targeting Shias and Sunni fighters who have taken on the insurgents.
According to Iraqi officials, some 434 Iraqis have been killed in such attacks across the country, one of the highest tolls for a similar period of time over the past few years. The Al-Qaeda group has claimed responsibility for some of the attacks.
The wave of violence, the worst since the US military withdrew from Iraq in mid December, has stirred worries that the country could slide back into the kind of sectarian conflict that killed tens of thousands of Iraqis a few years after the US-led invasion.
The political crisis has exposed deep sectarian divisions in Iraq and triggered fears of interference by neighbouring countries having stakes in Iraq.
Turkey, which originally helped the country's Sunnis to form the Iraqiya bloc, has criticised Al-Maliki, with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan warning that his country, whose population is mostly Sunni, "cannot remain silent" if there is sectarian conflict in Iraq.
Iraqi Kurdish President Jalal Talabani has proposed a national conference to try to end the crisis, but the feuding groups have not been able to agree on a venue, agenda or list of participants.
Iraqiya's decision to return its lawmakers to the parliament has also not calmed such fears. Many observers believe that Iraq's political crisis is structural in nature and that it can only be resolved by breaking a deeply ingrained sectarian pattern.
On Sunday, Iraqiya leader Iyad Allawi reaffirmed his determination that the bloc would not return to the government until the Shia alliance had accepted one of three proposals.
Either it should name a new prime minister to replace al-Maliki, or it should form a new government whose task would be to prepare for new parliamentary elections, or it should form an all-inclusive national partnership government.
"It is up to Al-Maliki, his party and his alliance to decide whether they are part of the coalition, or whether they want to rule Iraq unilaterally," Allawi told the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper.
Also on Sunday, Al-Hashemi lashed out at al-Maliki, predicting that Iraq could soon return to sectarian violence that could require the return of US forces.
Al-Maliki was pushing Iraq to a turning point with a deeply sectarian dimension, he told the US television channel CNN during an interview in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, where he is taking refuge.
All this indicates that Iraqiya's ending of the parliamentary boycott is still unfinished business and huge practical questions loom ahead that will require tough political decisions.
For the moment, it seems that everything hinges on Al-Maliki and whether he is ready to make a compromise and avoid the temptations of overconfidence and arrogance that he has shown in dealing with the latest crisis.
Many Iraqis believe that the proposed national conference could be a decisive step and their leaders' last chance to end the sectarian divide and build a viable state.
If the present multiple disputes remain unresolved, the resulting dramas could soar, causing the country to fall back into sectarian civil war.


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