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New tug-of-war looms
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 19 - 01 - 2012

The Tribunal continues, but the shadow of Syrian events hangs over Lebanon, notes Lucy Fielder in Beirut
Ban Ki-Moon's visit this week cast a spotlight on Lebanon and the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), an issue that promises to rear its head again in the coming few months. Although the UN secretary-general's warning to Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to stop the killing dominated the headlines, he also touched in several interviews on the UN court to try the assassins of former prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. A tug-of-war within the government concerning Lebanon's obligation to fund nearly half the court's expenses dominated the latter half of 2011, until Prime Minister Najib Mikati approved the payment through a loophole.
But in March, three years after the court was established, the UN protocol under which it operates must be renewed in consultation with Lebanon's government. Lebanese commentators have been debating for weeks whether that could herald a new tussle between armed Shia party Hizbullah, whose 8 March alliance dominates the government Mikati heads. Last July, the Netherlands-based court indicted four men believed to be Hizbullah fighters -- an assumption the group's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, appears to have endorsed in several speeches.
izbullah's opposition to the court, which it has always accused of being a US-Israeli tool, brought down the last government, a cabinet of national unity headed by Al-Hariri's son Saad. Mikati was sworn in with Hizbullah's blessing; the group saw him as a safe pair of hands on the tribunal who was also palatable to most of Lebanon's Sunni community. But his insistence on funding the tribunal appears to have driven a wedge between the two sides, and many have suggested HIzbullah turned a blind eye to the funding last year with a view to pushing to get the protocol changed to accommodate its reservations.
In an interview with Lebanon's English-language Daily Star, Ban ruled that out. "I don't think there is a need to change any agreement," he said, adding that under the agreement between the Lebanese state and the UN the STL's mandate would renew automatically.
"It is a matter of extending the mandate so that all the work can be carried out to bring justice to the perpetrators of this crime," Ban said. "That is something to be decided by me in consultation with the UN Security Council and Lebanese authorities."
According to a report by Wafiq Qanso in this week's independent, pro-government Al-Akhbar newspaper, Hizbullah has interpreted the stipulation that Lebanon be consulted by the United Nations as non-binding, meaning that the government could express no opinion.
"This would, outwardly, seem like a convenient way for Mikati to avoid a government crisis," Qanso wrote. "But Hezbollah is worried that the premier may be lured into making public commitments on the matter -- as he did when the issue of STL funding arose. That severely embarrassed his political allies, forcing them to choose between quitting the government or accepting his decision to finance the tribunal."
Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a Beirut-based Hizbullah expert, said this time round could be different. "Mikati had to take a stand then and find a means of funding the tribunal, whereas this time the consultation requirement appears to be symbolic," she said. "But there's an issue of trust now between Hizbullah and Mikati. He's obviously not as robust as they imagined he'd be and seems to be trying to ingratiate himself with the West."
That stand-off is likely to play out behind the scenes. All sides in Lebanon are watching the outcome of Syria's uprising, and there is no question that Hizbullah, which is backed by Damascus as well as Iran, would much prefer Mikati to a return of Saad Al-Hariri. The latter at first accused Syria of killing his father, an accusation he retracted. But his criticism of the regime is growing more vociferous, and his 14 March anti-Syrian alliance is clearly hoping for a regime-change next door that would reverse their fortunes.
Lebanon's funding was channeled to the tribunal through a loophole that enabled the prime minister to tap into a disaster-relief fund without government approval. Nasrallah rebuked Mikati in a speech in early December, saying he had "embarrassed himself" and made it clear that he would now be expected to make progress on two issues related to the court.
One was the "false witnesses", who gave testimony early in the investigation into Al-Hariri's killing then retracted it. Hizbullah, which denies any role in the assassination, says the witnesses were put up to it, and exposing the culprits could provide a clue to the identity of the real killers. The other is justice for the four generals, who headed Lebanon's then Syria-dominated security apparatuses at the time of the killing and were jailed for four years without trial, partly on tip-offs given by the witnesses. They were released in 2009 for lack of evidence.


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