As the crisis over Lebanon's funding for the Special Tribunal comes to a head, the prime minister seems to be trying to buy time, reports Lucy Fielder from Beirut Pressure mounted on Lebanese prime minister Najib Mikati this week as he attempted to resolve the crisis over Lebanon's obligation to fund the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) in the Hague, with the cabinet holding discussions on a draft budget that includes the controversial payment. Mikati has pledged to uphold Lebanon's commitment to fund the court, but his government is dominated by the Shia group Hizbullah, which is opposed to funding a court that has indicted four of its members for the 2005 killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Al-Hariri. Highlighting the escalating crisis, the STL announced this week that it would begin preparing an in absentia trial of the four men, whom Hizbullah has vowed never to give up to a court that it considers to be a US and Israeli-dominated weapon against it. This leaves Mikati walking a tightrope. Initial discussion of the budget is not expected to touch on the funding provision, but the issue cannot be delayed indefinitely. The STL, established by a UN Security Council resolution that also required Lebanon to meet half its running costs, said last week that Lebanon had 30 days to submit its share of the funding, which this year amounts to $32 million. An STL spokesman warned that Lebanon could be referred to the Security Council if it refused to pay up. Figures from the country's opposition, who staunchly support the court, have warned of international isolation, even sanctions, if Lebanon reneges on its commitment. Mikati has stated before the UN General Assembly that Lebanon will respect its international commitments, including those regarding the court. But Hizbullah, which is supported by Syria and Iran and supported Mikati's appointment after bringing down the last government amid a row over the STL, has made it clear that it rejects Lebanon's making the payment. Hizbullah deputy secretary-general Naim Qassem suggested this week that the funding question should be put to a vote within the cabinet. Since Hizbullah and its allies, such as the Christian Free Patriotic Movement, which has also announced its opposition to Lebanon's funding the court, have more than a third of the cabinet seats, they would hold sway in any such vote. Karim Makdisi, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut, said that Hizbullah's view that the court was a political weapon against it would make it harder for the group to back down over the funding. "To approve the funding is to legitimise the court," Makdisi said, "so there's going to have to be some sort of face-saving deal done behind the scenes." Among possible compromises could be an agreement to fund the court this year, while lodging a request at the United Nations to renegotiate Lebanon's agreement with the court when it comes up again next March. Another solution would be for the funding to be released by presidential decree and counter- signed by the prime minister. However, neither Lebanese President Michel Suleiman nor Mikati would be likely to attempt such a step without the tacit agreement of Hizbullah, though this could allow the group to avoid being seen to be legitimising the court in the short-term while at the same time fixing its sights on ensuring that the court's mandate is not renewed in March. The opposition has sought to capitalise on the issue's potential to embarrass Mikati and bring about his resignation and the collapse of the government. No figure that could replace him under current circumstances would be likely to wield much influence in Lebanon's Sunni community, to which Mikati and the al-Hariri family belong, and which is largely supportive of the court. An editorial in the Lebanese Daily Star newspaper said that Mikati could resign but end up staying on as a caretaker prime minister, using this as a reason to avoid approving the funding. Another possible tactic would be to string out cabinet and parliamentary discussions of the budget. "This saga could extend as long as March, when the STL's mandate ends, and politicians could keep their fingers crossed, hoping for some kind of meltdown," the pro-opposition paper said. According to Makdisi, Mikati is trying to buy time, though Hizbullah does not want to see him resign. "I think Hizbullah will be understanding of his position and will allow him flexibility. It wants to keep the current cabinet in place and to give it time to deliver stability and progress on social issues and services," he said. However, sanctions against Lebanon's Syrian- allied government could be on the horizon if the country seeks to re-negotiate its agreement with the United Nations at a time when international pressure on Iran and Syria is continuing to build, Makdisi said. Not only do both countries support Hizbullah, but the latter country also wields great influence in Lebanon through security cooperation left over from its post-civil war military presence and through its many powerful allies. "Whatever its judicial independence might be, the STL has always been part of a political project," Makdisi said. "Now we're seeing an escalation in US rhetoric towards Iran, and we seem to be heading for a new wave of confrontation."
