The threat to close the Hormuz Strait is really just that, surmises Amani Maged Over the past few years, the West has used escalating rounds of economic sanctions to intimidate Iran and compel it bow to Western demands regard to its nuclear programme. Often, Iran's way of bearing its teeth in return has been to hint that it would close the Strait of Hormuz and to conduct military manoeuvres to demonstrate its ability to do so. However, with the prospect of another set of yet harsher economic sanctions against Tehran, the conflict has entered a dangerous phase of brinksmanship. Will the parties be able to pull back from the brink in time or will they slip over the precipice and suck the entire region into the vortex of war? As the situation stands so far in the situation in the Gulf, economic warfare seems to be the parties' preferred option. Nevertheless, some official circles in Tehran are clearly inclined to flexing some military muscle. Revolutionary Guards naval commander Admiral Ali Fadavi announced, on Friday, that the Guards will be holding naval exercises in the Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz in February. While blocking this highly strategic waterway, through which 40 per cent of the world's petroleum shipping passes, would be a piece of cake, as Iranian officials have put it, to actually embark on this step would be extremely risky for Iran. The US has made it very clear on more than one occasion that it would never accept an oil tanker war in the Gulf or an occupation of other countries' territory by force. Iranians are probably well aware of how far they can go, which is military manoeuvres that cross no red lines. Observers, however, believe that Tehran cannot continue to play this game endlessly and that the longer it persists and the higher the stakes that are gambled, the less likely a peaceful solution becomes. Undoubtedly for this very reason, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has launched a diplomatic offensive in South America in order to rally the support of leftwing governments there against a new round of economic sanctions intended to target Iran's vital petroleum exports. His first port of call was Venezuela, long a staunch supporter of Iran and a defiant opponent of Western imperiousness. In a televised address, President Hugo Chavez scoffed at an American caution against establishing close relations with Iran. "When some American spokesperson for the State Department or the White House tells you that it is not appropriate for a country to have close relations with Iran, that has to make you laugh," he said. The US could not dominate the whole world so he advised Obama to stop trying and to concentrate on solving the many problems of his own country. "We are free," he proclaimed. "The Latin American people will never kneel down again and allow American imperialists do dominate them... Never!" Just hours before this display of Venezuelan-Iranian solidarity, the US State Department announced that it was expelling Venezuela's consul general in Miami, Livia Acosta Noguera. Although the State Department did not explain why it had taken this action, the Miami Herald suggested that she was alleged to have discussed a possible cyber attack against the US government. Because of its timing, most analysts maintain that the expulsion was a last-minute response to Ahmadinejad's South American tour. Be that as it may, Ahmadinejad's diplomatic drive suggests that the US/ Western-Iranian conflict will not spiral out of control. Lending weight to this analysis is the fact that Ahmadinejad has also declared his support for a Russian proposal calling for a comprehensive multi-phased plan to resolve the conflict. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast announced in a press conference this week that his government had asked EU Foreign Minister Catherine Ashton to suggest a place and time to resume the negotiations with Iran that had broken off two years ago. His government was now waiting for Ashton's response, he said, adding "Iran's senior nuclear negotiator Said Jalili and his team will then voice their opinion on the subject and through further contacts there will be a final agreement between the two negotiating teams." However, the West still seems to prefer to strong-arm Iran with economic sanctions. After the prohibition Washington declared against dealing with companies that cooperate with the Central Bank of Iran, the value of the Iranian riyal fell by 12 per cent against the dollar. Meanwhile, tensions have mounted further between Washington and Tehran, following the latest Iranian naval exercises in which locally manufactured tanks were used for the first time. Interpreting these manoeuvres as a new display of muscle and a threat against harsher sanctions, the British Foreign Secretary Barry Marston warned Iran against any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with the Saudi Al-Iqtisadiya newspaper, Marston accused Tehran of trying to divert attention from its nuclear programme and warned, "The Iranian regime can predict the consequences of its actions if it fulfils its threat to close the only outlet that links the Arab Gulf countries with European markets. Such actions would certainly not be in Iran's interests." On British Defence Minister Philip Hammond's intimations regarding the possibility of military action to counter the Iranian threat to the strait, the foreign minister said, "Hammond did not issue a threat. Rather, he cautioned Iran against obstructing a chief conduit for oil and trade. Britain will not tolerate a threat to close one of the major commercial arteries in the world." In the same interview, Marston said, "Any attempt to close the strait is illegitimate and is doomed to fail. Any obstruction of the passage of oil through the strait is a threat to regional and economic growth and will have a severe impact on the economies of the Gulf and the world." The EU, for its part, continues to express its "deep concern" over the Iranian nuclear programme, as EU spokesperson for foreign affairs Maga Cosianitch said in a press conference this week. Commenting on reports that Tehran has begun to step up its uranium enrichment operations, she said that the EU is in the process of producing a new package of sanctions against Tehran and that the package will most likely be adopted in the EU foreign ministers meeting scheduled for the end of this month. She did not provide any details about the nature of the new sanctions, but EU sources have hinted that the next round would include a ban on Iranian oil. It is uncertain how effective such a step would be, given that Iran has plenty of customers for its oil outside of the EU. The largest importers of Iranian oil at present are Turkey, India, South Korea and China. Tehran has warned that the oil prices could skyrocket to $200 per barrel in the event that the EU applies such a ban. In addition, Iranian Supreme Guide Ali Khamanei has vowed that Iran would not yield to the sanctions imposed on it by the West because of its nuclear programme. In a meeting with clergymen and representatives of citizens in Qum, he said, "Western officials have repeatedly declared their determination to use sanctions and intimidation to frustrate the ambitions of the Iranian people and to force Iranian officials to abandon their projects. However, those Western officials are mistaken if they imagine that they will ever attain their ends." The tone is as defiant as ever, but political analysts believe that, for the time being, the situation will remain within the bounds of sanctions and polemics.
