Obtuse tribal warlords, cattle rustlers, gangsters and rival youth militias may have dished the chances of South Sudan's peace and prosperity, laments Gamal Nkrumah After months of speculation over whether South Sudan would degenerate into motley warring tribal fiefdoms, it has. The deadly tribal fighting this week in the resource-rich, oil-producing, albeit impoverished South Sudanese state of Jonglei -- so central to the country's prosperity and economic well-being -- was a grave reverse in the South Sudanese people's struggle to usher in a democratic, prosperous new nation. The newly independent nation must get a grip on the feuding ethnic groups fast. If it can do so, South Sudan's prospects will still be good in spite of this week's bloodbath. The hope is that in the age of YouTube and Facebook, the authorities in the South Sudanese capital of Juba would avoid repeating the horrors of the Sudanese civil war. In the past, successive governments in Khartoum played one southern tribe or ethnic group against another in a desperate bid to divide the ranks of southerners. The tribal wars entail the torching of thatched huts, the rape of peasant women and children, but satellite phones are conducting ethnic clashes. This is a dangerous precedent. Jonglei is not alone. However, its development is key to the water security of the entire White Nile Basin, Egypt not excluded. Therefore, South Sudan and all neighbouring Nile Basin nations including Egypt and Sudan will undoubtedly benefit tremendously with the construction of the long-anticipated Jonglei Canal which was the subject of the doctoral thesis of John Garang, founder of the ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) in South Sudan. Jonglei literally lies in the heart of South Sudan. It is also home to diverse ethnic groups including several key clans of the Dinka people, the ethnic Nuer and dozens of minority groups such as the Murle. The current fierce fighting between the Luo Nuer and the Murle threatens to spread to other ethnic groups. As gunfire reverberated throughout the jungles of Jonglei television pictures displayed gruesome images of mangled bodies. It was the bloodiest episode since South Sudan attained independence in July 2011. The violence threatens to derail the peace process envisioned by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement the SPLM and Khartoum. This week a state of emergency was declared in Jonglei State and the government of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir designated a buffer zone in conflict areas. Cattle rustling activities have traditionally been endemic in South Sudan and livestock is the main source of income in the country. Tribal society in South Sudan is based on the raising of cattle and both the Luo Nuer and the Murle peoples are cattle herders. The crisis erupted as the two groups competed for fast shrinking pastureland. The Luo Nuer allegedly attacked the Murle in the vicinity of Likuangole district. Church leaders and civil society leaders attempted in vain to intervene. A reconciliation committee was formed to ensure peace between the warring Luo Nuer and the Murle by the Community Empowerment for Progress Organisation (CEPO) and the Sudan Council of Churches (SCC). Peace between the two tribes, though, cannot be guaranteed. The degree of animosity is demoniac, and there is little the SCC or civil society organisations such as CEPO can do. The ferocity of the all-out assault on Jonglei cities such as Bor and Pibor has stirred particular outrage in South Sudan. The SPLM government in Juba has plainly failed to persuade the Jonglei protagonists to change their ways or open meaningful talks with each other. Regional and international options are limited. The neighbouring states do not want to interfere even though the fighting threatens to spread to Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. No one in the region is seriously recommending military intervention and neighbouring East African governments have curiously been silent or muted in their criticisms of the curse of internecine tribal infighting. The SPLM government in Juba has indicated that they are prepared to trim the powers of tribal leaders some of whom are regarded as the main instigators of the fighting. The SPLM government wants to boost civil society organisations, and there is no hint yet that the cash-strapped government in Juba is running short of funds to pay local government officials in Jonglei to put an end to the violence. A serious challenge is that it is not entirely clear who is exactly in command at the front. "We the Nuer Youth have decided to fight to the death the Murle, the SPLM and the UN." A most acrimonious statement issued by a mysterious militia ominously calling itself the Nuer Youth White Nile Army declared. "We will wipe out the entire Murle tribe," the portentous statement read. South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar, an ethnic Nuer himself, decried the violence in Jonglei. He urged the Nuer militias to return to their towns in fulfillment of a 28 December agreement between the Nuer and the Murle tribal leaders under SPLM guidance. "In the president's New Year message, he already ordered the army to cooperate with the UN peacekeeping forces to make sure that civilian lives are protected," South Sudan Minister of Information Barnaba Benjamin concurred. He warned that a regional war drawing in neighbours was imminent if the crisis is not contained. The evolving list of demands of disgruntled peoples, hammered out in days and nights of heated debate in the run-up to the referendum that determined the political future of South Sudan as an independent nation. Juba has been making token handouts to mollify the cantankerous tribal leaders but obviously with little success. So the burning question in Juba and the Nile Basin is who precisely will benefit from the tribal chaos? Warlords and tribal militias contend for power in various parts of South Sudan. Arms and ammunition are aplenty and in abundance throughout the region. It is for this reason that South Sudan's president paid a visit to Israel two weeks ago ostensibly in order to solicit security defences against outlaws. Yet many South Sudanese believe that Israeli security assistance is mostly rhetorical. The broader suspicion by Khartoum and shared now by a number of Arab states and across a wide spectrum of Arab opinion is that Israel has ulterior motives and intends to get embroiled in the affairs of key non-Arab Nile Basin nations such as South Sudan. Bowing to long-standing demands by certain Nile Basin nations for the Israelis to step up technical assistance in their respective countries in the fields of agricultural development and security, Israeli leaders are jumping at the opportunity to do brisk business with Nile Basin nations. This is especially so in the case of the strategically located South Sudan with its abundant oil wealth, water reserves and agricultural potential. This new gateway for Israel into African affairs was not vision of those who struggled and were martyred to achieve the-long-sought-after independence of South Sudan. Frustration at having been cheated out of the legacy of Garang, and the latent fear of regression to the conflict-ridden days of the Sudanese civil war, underlie the latest melodramatic tribal clashes. Medicins Sans Frontieres, Doctors Without Borders, warned of a looming humanitarian catastrophe in Jonglei. The clan leaders and their respective tribal militias again reverted to murderous force to advance their aims.
