If dictatorship was forthcoming for Washington when it came to implementing US demands, democracy in Egypt may be more of a handful, writes Amr Abdel-Ati* Since the 25 January Revolution succeeded in ending Hosni Mubarak's rule, major regional and international powers have been trying to make up their minds as what kind of Egypt they wish to see in the future. Western nations, including the US, are encouraging Egypt to become a democratic country in a liberal kind of way. Iran and Turkey seem to think that Egypt should assert its Islamic identity, albeit in different ways. The Turks are all for a secular type of a state, whereas the Iranians may hope for something more conservative. In the Arab world, the feeling one gets is that conservative countries wish to see Egypt go easy on the democratic front, whereas more change-inspired countries wish to see Egypt lead a more revolutionary kind of life. Washington is picking its words carefully; hoping to encourage what it believes is advisable without offending local sensibilities. The Americans are keenly aware that they need to stay on good terms with the post- Mubarak regime, if only because of Egypt's undeniable regional influence. The US administration, as well as American analysts and diplomats, are watching closely for any clues about the future of Egypt. American experts will be analysing the emerging political realities of Egypt in the light of the upcoming elections. Speaking recently to NPR, Hillary Clinton said that Egypt is going through a transformation and that the US will have a "different" kind of influence in that country in the future. Aware that democracy can be unpredictable sometimes, the US secretary of state seems to be avoiding any unduly optimistic remarks. The Americans will have a lot of adjustment to do. For one thing, they will be dealing with a country in which public opinion is a major influence on domestic and foreign policy. Public opinion is more potent now than it was in the past 30 years, and one may assume that the foreign policies of the upcoming regime may become more "populist" as a result. The possibility of the Egyptians getting as independent in their foreign policy as the Turks have been of late is not to be dismissed. Strategic ties between Egypt and the US are likely to continue, but in a reduced form compared to under Mubarak. The Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) of the Muslim Brotherhood, many expect, will become a major player on the local scene. So far, the Islamists have been opposed to the peace treaty with Israel, while not making secret their admiration of Hamas and Hizbullah. These are not policy positions that the Islamists would wish to revise soon, for they may lose some of their public support should they do so. Non-Islamist political groups, from the liberals to the nationalists and socialists, will also have a substantial say in foreign policy. These groups, and the presidential candidates they support, seem to be in favour of revising Egyptian-US and Egyptian- Israeli relations. Israel, America's top ally in Egypt, has already seen its relations with Egypt change after the revolution. Its embassy has been attacked, and some border issues have arisen, all suggesting a substantial change in the tenor of relations, one that prompted AIPAC (the American Israel Public Relations Committee) to ask Congress to put pressure on Egypt. As Egypt seeks to reshuffle its regional alliances, one may predict another shift to occur in its relations with the US. So far, signs of Egyptian rapprochement with both Iran and Turkey have been noticeable. Should a Turkish-Egyptian-Iranian axis come into being, the Americans may have a lot of rethinking to do. Ironically, democracy may turn out to be a tougher nut to crack than a dictatorship. In Mubarak's case, the regime often buckled to US demands without much resistance. In post- revolution Egypt, this is unlikely to happen. Egyptians will continue to seek close ties with the Americans, but not at any price. In Washington, too, lobbying against Egypt may pick up pace over any number of issues. In the US Congress, laws will be passed linking assistance to Egypt with certain policies that the country should presumably embrace. This will not sit well with the Egyptians, and bouts of ill temper are likely to become common on both sides. * The writer is an expert in US affairs and associate editor of Al-Siyasa Al-Dawliya.
