Climate change is set to have an adverse effect on food security in Mediterranean countries, writes Nader Noureddin* Since 1970, temperatures have risen by nearly two degrees Centigrade in Mediterranean countries. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report on climate change in the Mediterranean published December 2009, rainfall has dropped by 20 per cent, and thus climate change already has visible effects. Forecasts for the 21st century include an increase in air temperature of 2.1 to 5.1 degrees Centigrade; a sharp decline in rainfall up to 27 per cent; and increased periods of drought resulting in more frequent occurrences of day temperatures above 30 degrees. The frequency and violence of extreme climate events such as heat waves, drought or floods could also increase. However, increases of maximum temperature on hot days and decreases of maximum temperature on cold days will also be expected. Water resources will suffer from increases in evaporation and decreased rainfall, in addition to changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall. The issue of water will become a major challenge for sustainable development in the Mediterranean region. The warming of deep-sea water, aggravated flooding for low-lying coastal lands, and accelerated cliff and beach erosion are all expected, in addition to seawater intrusion into shallow groundwater and sub-soil layers. Land degradation and desertification will accelerate. These impacts are expected to aggravate the current pressure from human activities on natural resources, such as fishing and agriculture. The region suffers from water shortages. More than 180 million inhabitants benefit from less than 1,000 cubic metres per year per capita and 80 million are facing scarcity (less than 500 cubic metres per year per capita). Water deficits are striking in southeast Mediterranean countries, justifying apportioning resources to non-conventional uses, such as reuse of wastewater, desalination, and technical developments to increase exploitable potential of water resources. Water demand has doubled over the past 50 years, with agriculture being the main consumer at 64 per cent. Losses, leaks and waste are estimated at 40 per cent of total water demand. Although countries are beginning to make efforts to limit and reduce these loses and wastage, tension on water resources remains high, particularly in Egypt, Malta, Syria, Libya and Israel. Two out of three Mediterranean inhabitants live in urban areas and half of the urban population lives in small cities (less than 300,000). The vulnerability of Mediterranean cities will increase under the impact of climate change, threats from rising sea levels in the south and east (50 per cent of the urban population reside in areas located less than 10 metres from current sea levels), public health risks (pollution), and climate migration. Agriculture in the Mediterranean is dependent on rainfall and therefore impacted by climate change. Agricultural production of cereals, vegetables and citrus fruits is expected to decline. Climate change will have a greater impact on agriculture due to deficits in available water resources and threats of farmland degradation. The effects of climate change in agriculture will include the challenging suitability of land for different types of crops and pasture, changes in the availability of good quality water for crops, livestock and inland fish production, loss of arable land due to increased aridity and associated salinity, groundwater depletion and the rise in sea levels that will lead to internal and international migration. The productivity of the main three crops will decrease significantly with the rising temperatures associated with low humidity. The productivity of rice is expected to drop by 30 per cent, wheat by 20 per cent, and maize by 47 per cent, in addition to the decrease of vegetable and fruit productivity by up to 20 per cent. This will affect food availability, accessibility, utilisation and food system stability, according to the Food Security and Climate Change in Middle East and North Africa Report published by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) in 2009. Food security will be seriously threatened in Mediterranean countries over the next four decades, especially with most of them importing more than 60 per cent of their food requirements. More effort should be exerted to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. * The writer is professor of soil and water sciences at the Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University.
