The presidential race is heating up, reports Amani Maged Islamist thinker has announced his intention to contest the presidency. He follows Abdel-Moneim Abul-Fotouh, and his candidature raises questions about how the Islamist vote will split. Also in the running is lawyer and popular religious leader Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, who is also considered a moderate. The three Islamist nominations signal a major change in the attitude of Islamist groups towards elections. Hitherto they spurned participation, their attitude towards the ballot box, and to the democratic process in general, at best ambivalent. The apparent change of heart may well have been precipitated by the many divisions that have emerged within the Islamist movement, compounded, as Mounir Shafiq, the prominent Palestinian commentator, has pointed out, by the retreat of political Islam on the regional and Arab scene. The Islamist trend, Shafiq argues, must change its political rhetoric in the face of the historic changes now taking place. Moderate Islamists are still tarnished by their perceived affiliation with the state. This is especially true of El-Awwa, seen by many as enjoying the backing of the Higher Council of the Armed Forces (HCAF). He denies any such ties, telling Al-Ahram Weekly that he has often criticised the HCAF, citing the occasion when he suggested local councils be dissolved, a move which the HCAF opposed. Some commentators have suggested that El-Awwa enjoys the tacit backing of the HCAF. In the poll conducted through the HCAF's website, he is second to Mohamed El-Baradei in popularity, even though his candidacy is barely a week old. El-Awwa describes claims that the HCAF is backing him as "fabricated delusions". "Those who are propagating these rumours are mistaken on two counts. First, I am no good at conspiracies. What I say behind closed doors I repeat in front of millions of people. If the HCAF had struck a deal with me I would have made it public. And second, I am good at what I do and refuse to be manipulated by anyone. Neither am I an opportunist who uses others." "I constantly challenge the HCAF with my opinions, and to be honest they have never censured me except when I said that local councils should be dissolved and that Ahmed Shafik's first cabinet should be fired. A member of HCAF called me and in very civilised terms told me that terms like 'must' and 'are obligated' were not very useful when the council had been in power for just five days. To be quite honest, I believe the council to be proficient, wise and patient." The pressing question now is whether El-Baradei and El-Awwa remain the frontrunners or if Abul-Fotouh entering the competition will upset the balance. El-Awwa believes that ultimately it will be policies, rather than personalities, that decide the outcome. "We are trying to transform the country and the arbitrator will be the glass [ballot] box. I believe all the candidates want to serve their country and this nurtures respect, not rivalry." Many observers expect the competition between El-Baradei and El-Awwa will be fierce and that the Islamists may well try to rally all their supporters behind the latter. Others point out that Abul- Fotouh, having earlier announced that he would concede his candidacy to El-Awwa, is now in a very difficult position. Yet he remains determined, reiterating last week that he still intends to stand even after the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) dismissed him from his leadership post. Some suggest that Abul-Fotouh commands the support of the Brotherhood's younger cadres. Whether that provides him with a sufficiently strong base to withstand the inevitable attempts to pressure him to withdraw from the race in support of El-Awwa remains to be seen. El-Awwa's campaign is now counting on winning Brotherhood votes after the group withdrew its support for Abul-Fotouh. There are even rumours that the MB will officially back El-Awwa, if only to spite a man it now regards as a rebel.
