Iran's "fox" suddenly disappeared from the political arena. Amani Maged wonders where he is and what the implications are In a series of blows, Iranian reformists Mir Mousavi and Mahdi Karroubi disappeared, Iran's former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani resigned from his post as speaker of the Assembly of Experts of Iran, and protests were suppressed. These moves undermine the opposition in the conservative camp, which demonstrated on Tuesday to demand to know the location of Mousavi and Karroubi and to celebrate International Women's Day. Some observers believe that protests in Iran could lead to a second revolution there after Tunisia and Egypt, especially since demonstrations by the opposition are supported by the US. Other analysts believe, however, that the popular uprisings in Arab countries will not affect the domestic political situation in Iran because there are no revolutionary motives there. These factors, especially the disappearance of Rafsanjani from the political arena as speaker of the Assembly of Experts of Iran which is responsible for appointing and dismissing the supreme guide of the Islamic Revolution, raise a vital question about the future of the Iranian opposition. Will it recede or grow stronger to bring down the gains of the previous Islamic revolution. Rafsanjani, who is known as the King of Pistachio or the Fox, is a prominent figure who has played an important role in the Islamic Republic since its establishment in 1979. He was a close confidante of Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of Iran's revolution, which is why many reformers relied on him especially in his position as speaker of the Assembly of Experts on Iran. Another role he could have played was reconciling the reformers with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to Western sources, Rafsanjani's resignation was a result of pressure by Iran's leadership because of his sympathetic views towards the reformers, and the role of his family in this matter. His daughter Faiza is a women's rights activist who was detained for several hours during protests last month and was later released. At the time, she was accused of supporting the Green reformist movement led by Mousavi and Karroubi. Rafsanjani's criticism of last month's demonstrations supporting the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutionaries did not count for much. Since the protests of 2009 when Rafsanjani sided with the reformers, many felt this was a red line that he crossed in dealing with the Iranian authorities. Several news agencies reported on what they called a plan by Misbah Yazdi and Ahmed Jenti, the chairman of the Constitutional Council, to eliminate Rafsanjani from Iran's political arena once and for all after he declared his support of reformers. Many analysts believe this purposeful elimination of Rafsanjani could bolster the position of the conservatives and strengthen this force. Opposition entities, such as the Coordination Council of the Path of Hope led by Mousavi, take to the streets at intervals to prove their presence and influence among the Iranian population. The opposition call especially on women to protest the incarceration of female opposition activists, but in response the Iranian regime sternly warns against demonstrations. Another reformist leader is former Iranian PresidentMohamed Khatami, who called on the Iranian government to release the two opposition leaders and their wives. Khatami also demanded the release of Fakhr Al-Sadat Mohtashimi Bor the wife of Taj Zada, the former deputy minister of interior, as well as opposition figures on the occasion of Norooz celebrations, which tips the scale in favour of the reformists. Along with these moves, the International Human Rights Union said it would file a complaint with the UN about the disappearance of the two opposition figures Mousavi and Karroubi. Contrary to the view that asserts that the Iranian opposition could be influenced by the above factors, another opinion is that the resignation of Rafsanjani while maintaining an advisory position on the Constitutional Council would strengthen the opposition, because there would be no restrictions on Rafsanjani to play the role of a reformer and publicly endorse the opposition. This does not mean that the Iranian regime, which still maintains a tight grip on the country, will fall, begin to crack soon, or transform as quickly as Egypt and Tunisia. The regime is enforced by the Pasdaran revolutionary guard, and the religious Qom and Bazzar, and therefore will not fall as easily as some analysts purport. This mean that the Iranian opposition is weak and relies only on the strength of its foreign supporters. The opposition is spreading throughout Iran. The position of the Iranian opposition could be strengthened by new economic sanctions against Tehran, reducing contacts between official Iran and some countries in the West. At this point, it is hard to say whether the disappearance of Rafsanjani will negatively or positively affect Iran's political balance of power, but it will certainly have repercussions.
