NO ONE can yet tell what the number of those unemployed will come to this year. But what is certain is that it will increase given the slowdown of the economy, particularly in the tourism sector and with the return of thousands of Egyptian workers from Libya. Around 1.5 million Egyptian workers escaping the unrest in Libya are expected to return. According to Abu Bakr El-Guindi, head of the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS), speaking during a press conference held this week, Egypt's tourism sector was hard hit by events since the revolution. Cairo and Luxor hotel bookings fell from 70 per cent to 20 per cent. El-Guindi explained that the total losses during the first week after the breakout of the revolution are estimated at LE6 billion. "The continuity of strikes and unrest is very dangerous for our economy," he said, adding that the growth rate is expected to drop from 5.8 to 3.8 per cent and the budget deficit will widen from 7.9 to 8.5 per cent. Unemployment figures had improved during the last quarter of 2010 according to figures by CAPMAS. El-Guindi, at the press conference, said that according to the international criteria set by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), unemployment rate fell from 9.4 per cent registered during the last quarter in 2009 to 8.9 per cent during the last quarter of 2010. Although the total population figures increased in 2010, unemployment rate fell. According to CAPMAS, the total labour force in Egypt was estimated at 26.1 million individuals, representing 33.1 per cent of the total population, an increase of 3.7 per cent when compared to the same period the year before. An unemployment rate of 8.9 per cent means 2.3 million unemployed individuals. El-Guindi explained that 90 per cent of those unemployed individuals are university and high school graduates. The CAPMAS survey included 21,000 families in Egypt's different governorates. Rawya El-Batrawi, head of the population department at CAPMAS, explained that an unemployed person, according to the ILO criteria, is the person whose age is between 15 and 60, wants to work, keeps looking for a job, ready to start immediately, and does not find a job.
