Waning expectations

By Hoda Tawfik
The prospects for peace have never looked gloomier, as the guns of Israel blow away even the faintest of hopes that there might be a settlement worthy of the bloodshed endured by the Palestinians.
US President Bill Clinton's administration is only now realising that the requirements for peace negotiations in light of the Al-Aqsa Intifada differ from those of the negotiations it sponsored during the past eight years.
But whether Clinton will try to foster a deal that takes into account all final status issues is an open question as the count down begins to the final day of his term as president. And, the political situation in both Israel and the US makes the window of opportuntiy available before 20 January 2001, when Clinton steps down, seem that much smaller.
"It is almost time to launch a basic reassessment of America's leadership role in the search for an Israeli-Palestinian peace accord," said Richard Murphy former assistant secretary of state for the Middle East and South Asia. Murphy's "almost" seems to allow for the remote possibility that President Clinton might succeed in his latest effort to bring Israelis and Palestinians back to the negotiating table to hammer out a final agreement.
An Arab diplomat told Al-Ahram Weekly that although Clinton is working on proposals for final status issues, he needs assurances that both Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak would be responsive to his suggestions before he invites them for a summit.
Arab diplomats in New York are sceptical that Barak would agree to make any concessions beyond those he offered at Camp David -- ones which were rejected by Arafat and by the Arab and Organisation of the Islamic Conference summits.
Meanwhile, the Clinton administration is clinging steadfastly to the strategy that it agreed on with Barak and Arafat at talks in Sharm Al-Sheikh in October. "They stick to a mantra which the spokespersons repeat at every press briefing: 'We will continue to do everything we can to support the parties in their efforts to end the violence, restore calm and find a way to go back to the negotiating table,'" said the Arab diplomat.
Arafat, according to Arab diplomats in New York, insists that the only way out of the current impasse is through a comprehensive deal. He is also adamant that priority be given to political issues, rather than ones of security, maintaining that dealing with the latter would only be possible following a political settlement..
"The issue at hand is the implementation of land for peace according to UN resolution 242," Egyptian Ambassador to Washington Nabil Fahmi told the Weekly. In the meantime, the Palestinians have asked the UN secretary-general for an international force to protect Palestinian civilians in the occupied territories.
Ambassador Ahmed Abul-Gheit, Egyptian ambassador to the UN told the Weekly that the resolution for such an international force will probably be voted on by the Security Council tomorrow.
Abul-Gheit has been particularly busy of late, as Egypt is coordinating among UN representatives of non-aligned countries and Arab countries regarding the resolution. The draft resolution calls for the establishment of a United Nations Monitoring Force of 2000 unarmed military observers to be dispatched throughout the territories occupied by Israel since 1967.
A State Department official told the Weekly, that for the United States to agree on the creation and deployment of such a force is incumbent on Israel's acceptance of the measure. He added that the fact-finding commission to explore the situation in the occupied territories, a body that was agreed on during the Sharm Al-Sheikh summit, is considering making its trip to the area in the near future.
Abul-Gheit said that if the United States uses its veto to block the resolution, supporters of the resolution will present it to an emergency session of the General Assembly. "The secretary-general argued that the [fact-finding] committee should go to the region sooner, rather than later, as it could have a calming influence," said a spokesman for UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
But US Senator George Mitchell, head of the fact-finding committee, has not finalised plans for a visit to the region as the US is currently developing the mandate for the group.
State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher, said that Barak agrees to the fact-finding commission's visit to the occupied territories. Boucher also said, "we fully expect that both parties will cooperate with the committee."
Related stories:
Blowing in the wind
The other casualty
Barak's last throw of the dice 30 Nov. - 6 Dec. 2000
No holds barred 23 - 29 November 2000
The cost of weakness 16 - 22 November 2000
Crushing the Intifada -- phase two 16 - 22 November 2000
See Intifada in focus 26 Oct. - 1 Nov. 2000
Intifada special 19 - 25 October 2000
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