Come one, come all

Macedonia's repulsion of incursions by ethnic Albanian militant separatists shows how NATO's intervention injects instability into the Balkans, argues Gamal Nkrumah
March has been a critical month for the agitated ethnic Albanians of the Balkans. They know what they need to do to clear the last hurdle before political independence. But the Western powers no longer take kindly to their determination to settle their disputes with their Slav neighbours by force. The Albanians' eagerness to seek drastic solutions once had the tacit connivance and then the open encouragement of the West. But their tactics have had their cost -- both financial and, more importantly, human. And the West has now withdrawn its support. By their initial favour, NATO raised the Albanians' hopes, only to dash them cruelly just as their goal seemed at hand.
As NATO's ardour for the Albanians has cooled, the Macedonians have snatched the opportunity to cosy up to the Western organisation. At first, Macedonian Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski lashed out against US inertia. Georgievski accused Western troops of turning a blind eye to Albanian fighters as they infiltrated Macedonian territory. He spoke of "a new [Afghan-style] Taliban in Europe" -- the Albanians being a predominantly Muslim people. After raising these alarms, the Macedonian authorities requested Western assistance. The West obliged. NATO reinforced its presence on the Macedonia-Kosovo border to prevent Albanian separatists using Kosovo as a base for attacks on Macedonia. British, German and US troops were rushed in. With their border secured, the Macedonian army last week was able to flush the last Albanian fighters from their territory. The fighters had infiltrated Macedonia from Kosovo as part of their battle for self-determination. Macedonian troops stormed the ethnic Albanian separatists' headquarters in Selce, now a deserted ghost town. NATO's stern message to the Albanian separatists was swift and clear: try to return to the politics of confrontation and you will fast become obsolete. This is a far cry from NATO's earlier abatement of the separatists' hopes.
Growing instability in the Balkans has fuelled the separatists' desire for independence. The map of the Balkans changed dramatically after the break-up of the former Yugoslavia. The Croats, the Slovenes and even the ethnic Macedonian Slavs, who number only one and a half million, have their own states. The ethnic Albanians, who number well over seven million, do not want to be left behind. But for now, they remain scattered across the war-torn southeastern corner of Europe. Over four million Albanians live in the independent state of Albania -- a veritable economic basket case. A further two million are geographically concentrated in Kosovo.
Less numerous, but equally restless, are the Albanian communities of Montenegro, northern Macedonia and southern Serbia. The Slavic states of the Balkans believe that since the Albanians already have a state of their own they are not entitled to carve yet another corner of the Balkans for themselves. The Albanians, on the other hand, see themselves as the aggrieved party. They feel ill-treated in states designated for other nationalities. A demographic trend is also at work: the number of ethnic Albanians is rising rapidly while the other Balkans Slavic peoples are fast aging and dangerously dwindling. Albanians already outnumber Serbs in southern Serbia. According to official figures, 23 per cent of the Macedonian population is ethnic Albanian. The Albanians claim they account for over a third of the 2.2 million people of Macedonia. But since Macedonian independence in 1991, the Albanian minority has felt marginalised from decision-making.
Meanwhile, the situation in Kosovo has deteriorated ever since the UN Interim Administration in Kosovo (UNMIK) was put in force by NATO. Kosovo is now little more than a colony: and not a well run one. It is virtually controlled by the EU and NATO, the United Nations and the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE Mission in Kosovo (OMIK) is part of the UN's three-pillar system. The mandates of the other two UN pillars (Reconstruction and the Interim Civil Administration) are carried out by the EU and the UN Civil Affairs body. Under their auspices, Kosovo has turned into a haven for arms and narcotics trafficking. Hans Haekkerup, head of UNMIK, warns that the level of violence in Kosovo is "unacceptably high" and speaks of the "growing hardship for the population of Kosovo." Kosovo Albanian leader Ibrahim Rogova and Kosovo Serb leader Momcilo Trajkovic are at loggerheads. Tension between the two communities is worse than ever. Such conditions only quicken the ethnic Albanians' desire to determine their own affairs.
The situation in Macedonia is equally fractious. There are two main Albanian rebel groups active in northern Macedonia and southern Serbia. The more powerful, the Liberation Army of Presevo, Medvedjo and Bujanovac (UCPMB), is named after three municipalities in southern Serbia with predominantly Albanian populations. Until this week, the UCPMB moved with impunity inside Macedonia. The second group operating in northern Macedonia is the National Liberation Army (UCK). NATO says the force numbers under 1,000 while the Yugoslav authorities estimate their numerical strength to be over 5,000 well trained and well armed militiamen. Both the UCPMB and UCK receive strong support from the now disbanded Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). Many armed Albanians in Macedonia and southern Serbia previously fought alongside the KLA, abetted by NATO. The two groups were most active in and around the Macedonian town of Tetovo.
Blame and violence have marked the conflict. When on 14 March fighting erupted in Tetovo, the Russian Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, flew to the Macedonian capital, Skopje, and blamed Western complacency for the escalation of the crisis. The Macedonian army then moved against the Albanian militias with Soviet-made tanks and sent hundreds of troops and artillery to Tetovo. Now Macedonia's 500,000 ethnic Albanians fear reprisals. Moderate Albanian voices inside Macedonia have urged the militants to lay down arms. Others seek revenge.
Whatever the outcome, the current crisis in Macedonia, which erupted a month ago, risks spreading instability throughout the Balkans. Developments in Macedonia will affect events in Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro. The UN is taking some steps to improve this sorry mess. But most of its displeasure is aimed at the Albanians. The UN chief prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, said two inquiries are currently under way. One investigates alleged crimes committed by militant Albanians in Kosovo. The other investigates attacks by ethnic Albanian militias beyond Kosovo's borders in southern Serbia. The sad reality, however, is that NATO's current divide and rule approach to the crisis in the Balkans is likely only to induce fear and encourage a culture of blame.
The Balkans sit astride strategic routes and oil pipelines and are a buffer between the European Union, Turkey and the Middle East. It is the least developed and most impoverished corner of Europe. Western-style democracy is being forced on its disparate peoples. The key to improvement lies in strengthening the region's own democratic institutions and in respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the countries of the Balkans, including Federal Yugoslavia as guaranteed by UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 1999. For the divided nations of the Balkans, a quick fix from NATO will never amount to a long-term cure.
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