Spied off course

Chinese-American relations are never easy. The crash involving a US spy plane and a Chinese light aircraft are making them even harder, writes Thomas Gorguissian from Washington
The stand-off following a mid-air collision between a US navy spy plane and a Chinese fighter is in its second week. Accusations are coming thick and quick, 24 Americans are still in detention and the Chinese are demanding a US apology. No wonder the diplomats are worried. For now the US is protesting its innocence: "The president has made it clear we regret the loss of the Chinese pilot as a result of this accident. The notion that we would apologize for being in international airspace, for example, is not something we can accept," Vice-President Dick Cheney told NBC's Meet the Press programme last Sunday. And when he was asked whether the US had anything to apologise for, Cheney firmly answered: "No."
China thinks otherwise. Its top foreign policy official, Vice-Premier Qian Qichen, sent a letter to Secretary of State Colin Powell declaring that US statements of regret for the Chinese pilot's death were not enough. "The US statement on this incident so far is unacceptable, and the Chinese people have found it most dissatisfying," Qichen wrote, according to the official New China News Agency. The Chinese official also observed that an American apology would be of the "utmost importance in solving the problem."
Other officials went further. The army newspaper quoted Defence Minister Chi Haotian as saying, "We must turn our anger at hegemonism into tremendous motive force." The defence minister, who was visiting the dead Chinese pilot's wife added, "We must go all-out to make our country and our armed forces still stronger."
All this alarmism is having consequences. Bilateral relations are taking a cudgeling, admits the US administration. "The relationship is being damaged," US Secretary of State Colin Powell said on the Fox News Sunday programme. "In order for the damage to be undone and for no further damage to occur, we've got to bring this matter to a close as soon as possible." Vice-President Cheney, stressing the same position, told another Sunday TV show, "the longer this goes on without resolution, clearly the more difficult it becomes to manage the relationship and avoid risk to the long-term relationship with China."
President George Bush has been both stern and conciliatory. He publicly announced that the Chinese authorities needed to release the detained Americans quickly. Powell and other officials repeated the same message, hinting that trade relations could otherwise be damaged. Each year, China's right to enjoy normal trade relations with the US must be voted on in Congress. Officials are hinting that China risks losing votes. Today, US-China trade is worth $100 billion. A fifth of all Chinese exports go to the United States. Certainly, republican representatives are talking increasingly toughly. They want the administration to link China's recent actions with two key bilateral issues: US arms sales to Taiwan and China's trade status.
But despite the jingoistic shrieks from the right wing of the party, Bush has largely resisted going down the same path: for now. Observers note that, "Powell is in the driver's seat for plane crisis strategy." The secretary and his deputy, Richard Armitage, according to press reports, have been managing minute-by-minute developments between Beijing and Washington. And this indicates, many observers agree, that Bush is approaching the issue in a more conciliatory way. "Hard-liners" like Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were off the front line during the first week of the standoff.
The Bush administration has also avoided the word "hostage." Any mention of American "hostages," many agree, would escalate the crisis. America still shivers at memories of the 1979 Tehran crisis, which lasted 444 days. "They aren't hostages," Vice-President Cheney said on Sunday, speaking about the detained crew members, "because we have access to them, because they are being treated very well, because we expect they will be released shortly."
But Bush and his team may not be able to stay so accommodating for long. His core supporters are getting restless. The Weekly Standard, a conservative magazine, ran an editorial entitled "A National Humiliation." The column roundly criticised President Bush. Its authors, Robert Kagan and William Kristol, declared that the US plane crew are hostages and that President Bush has shown "weakness." They went on, "whatever risks may accompany a policy of confrontation and containment, the risks of weakness are infinitely greater."
The debacle in any case is a military embarrassment. The EP-3 spy plane is one of 12 aircraft of its kind in the world. Regional US military commanders constantly ask to use the plane because of how well it gathers tactical information. This technological gem is now in China's hands. But the loss will not deter the Americans from spying on other countries from the air. Officials announced that similar "routine surveillance and reconnaissance" operations will continue. And Secretary Powell said, "the flights will continue as necessary around the world to protect the US and its allies." Vice-President Dick Cheney also said the flights would continue. "It's important for us to know what's going on out there," Cheney said.
The crisis has caught the new administration by surprise. It will test the president's resolve. In the coming weeks President Bush could face what one democrat called the "perfect political storm": A perilous blend of foreign policy crisis, economic downturn and Senate disapproval for his tax plan. If Bush wants to weather the storm, he had best try and solve the spat with China as soon as he can. Otherwise his adventures abroad will leave him listing dangerously before he even turns to port and tries to navigate the tricky winds of domestic policy.
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