Signing in doubt

The Euro-Egyptian partnership is just around the corner, or else on the shelf. Al-Ahram Weekly investigates
Whether Egypt will decide to sign its partnership agreement with the European Union (EU) in a few days time, as had been expected, remains an open question. If the decision is taken, Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa is expected to join a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on 14 May for the signing ceremony. Signing the accord would give Egypt better access to EU markets and financial aid to modernise Egyptian industry in return for the gradual opening of Egypt's market to EU goods.
European sources say that they are very disappointed that Cairo has not responded with more enthusiasm to the EU proposal to sign the agreement on the proposed date. From the EU perspective, Egypt has agreed in principle to the agreement and there is, therefore, no reason to further delay the signing. Their frustration is all the greater in that top ranking Egyptian officials recently encouraged some EU leaders to believe that the agreement would be signed on schedule.
When President Hosni Mubarak gave the green light for the initialling of the agreement in late January, he ended two years of quibbling among cabinet members over the Egypt-EU partnership agreement. The negotiations on the agreement were concluded in 1999, after five years, during which the Egyptian negotiator tried to reconcile the different views of government ministers about the value and cost of this agreement. This accord is expected to give Egypt a share of an economic development package worth more than 5 billion euros earmarked for less developed Mediterranean countries and easier access to European markets for agricultural products.
If Egypt misses the 14 May deadline, it is unlikely that the Europeans will be able to schedule another signing date until later this year. Indeed, as they have not been given any clear reason for Cairo's ambivalence, they are unlikely to offer another date -- putting the ball in Egypt's court.
"We think it is a matter of political will: Egypt either wants it or does not want it," commented one EU source.
The Egyptian side, however, appears unsure as to when -- or if, as some senior government officials argue -- this agreement should be signed.
Discussion of the positive and negative impacts of this partnership agreement among the concerned government ministries has been a source of dispute at cabinet meetings for the past five years. Cabinet sources say that, traditionally, the ministries of industry and economy have opposed the agreement while the ministries of foreign affairs, telecommunication and information technology, international cooperation and public business sector are in favour.
A limited cabinet meeting last week revealed that this diversity of opinion still exists, according to one informed source who requested anonymity.
According to the source, Industry Minister Mustafa El-Rifa'i warned his cabinet colleagues that he was prepared to go before parliament and express his opposition to the agreement.
Another vehement critic of the agreement, Economy Minister Youssef Boutros-Ghali, had earlier presented the prime minister with a report advocating delay, the cabinet source said. Foreign Minister Amr Moussa, Minister of Telecommunication and Information Technology Ahmed Nazif, Minister of Public Business Sector Mukhtar Khatab and Minister of International Cooperation Ahmed El-Darsh supported signing on 14 May, he revealed.
El-Darsh presented the cabinet with a study suggesting that the agreement would allow Egypt to increase its exports to EU markets by 28 per cent, while imports from the EU would increase by no more than eight per cent, due to market saturation. For his part Prime Minister Atef Ebeid seemed to favour delaying the signing until his government finished preparing the overall plan for Egypt's modernisation requested by President Mubarak late last year. There is no clear deadline for this study.
The delay, the agreement's advocates insist, will mean that Egypt will lose out on millions of euros in EU grants and investments that would have been allocated to the modernisation of Egyptian industry and a big increase in quotas for Egypt's agricultural exports to EU markets.
This, they say, comes at a time when Egypt is faced with both US reluctance to begin negotiating a Free Trade Area and slow progress in establishing an Arab common market. The EU has already signed association agreements with Morocco, the Palestinian Authority and Israel. Agreements with Jordan, Syria and Tunisia are in the making.
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