From red to amber

Sharon's pretext for phase one of his military re-conquest was a suicide bomb; will the same be true for phase two, asks Graham Usher from Jerusalem
Late on Tuesday night, while Ariel Sharon sat down with George Bush in Washington, a Palestinian suicide bomber entered a pool hall in Reshon Lezion south of Tel Aviv armed with a suitcase. The "massive" charge brought the roof down on the 100 or so people in the club, leaving 15 dead and 57 wounded.
Rescue men pulled corpses from the rubble in scenes eerily similar to other dead being extracted from other ruins in Jenin and Nablus.
In a call to Hizbullah's Al-Manar television channel Hamas claimed responsibility, saying the "martyrdom operation" was revenge for Israeli actions in the Jenin refugee camp and elsewhere. The Palestinian Authority condemned the bombing, vowing that "stringent and strict measures will be taken against those groups" behind it.
It was the most lethal attack inside Israel since 21 April, the date Sharon declared "this stage" of Israel's military offensive in the occupied territories over, save, of course, for ongoing imbroglios like the siege on Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity. Palestinians and the world are bracing themselves for the next.
The Palestinians fear is it will be a re-run of phase one: conquest of their cities, a siege on their lives and destruction of their national institutions, encompassing this time not only the West Bank but also Gaza, base of the Hamas political leadership and what remains of a Palestinian Authority.
There was nothing in Sharon's immediate reactions to douse such fears. Phase one of operation Defensive Wall was "vital and important in dismantling the terrorist infrastructure but our work is not done. The battle continues and will continue until all those who believe that they can make gains through the use of terrorism will cease to exist."
But some Israeli analysts believe Sharon will not take the same path. From the Israeli leader's perspective, Defensive Wall phase one was a resounding success, despite the fact that it was always going to produce suicide bombers like mushrooms after rain.
It was successful because it re-established Israel's untrammelled military rule throughout the West Bank and has subsequently allowed the army to besiege and invade Palestinian towns and villages at will, unencumbered by abstractions like Area A or meaningful Palestinian resistance.
Where it failed was in the attempt to de-legitimise and remove Yasser Arafat as the authentic leader of the Palestinian people. Even the tide of Palestinian demands for reform after the authority's baleful performance in the face of the Israeli assaults do not amount to a challenge to his leadership, says PA Gaza security chief Mohamed Dahlan.
"There is a Palestinian consensus behind President Arafat. He led the battle for steadfastness. He must now lead the battle for internal change. He is stronger than ever but he must take advantage of this to reform his institutions."
This, broadly, had been the European and Arab view. Prior to the Rishon Lezion attack even the Americans sought to play down Sharon's obsession with the personality of Arafat -- and his "direct link to terrorism" -- in favour of a policy of sidelining him via "democratisation and changes in the structure of the PA."
After it President Bush was asked whether he now supports any moves against the Palestinian leader. "I'm never going to tell my friend the prime minister what to do. He is a democratically-elected official," he replied.
This is hardly a red light. Nor is it a green one. It is amber. But Sharon has a history of reading American amber lights as green.
"It could be we have no choice but to expel Yasser Arafat," Israel's Education Minister, Livnor Livnat, said on Wednesday.
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