Chaos in Karachi

Iffat Malik from Islamabad examines the disturbing impact of US infiltration into the tribal areas of Pakistan in search of remaining Al-Qa'eda and Taliban fighters, and looks into the implications of Karachi's bomb blast
The euphoria felt by President Musharraf after his referendum success was abruptly shattered on Wednesday morning, when a bus carrying French engineers and technicians was blown up by a suicide bomber. Eleven Frenchmen and three Pakistanis were killed in the blast outside Karachi's Sheraton Hotel. A huge tragedy for France, and a huge headache for the Musharraf government.
Sadly, Pakistan is no stranger to terrorism. For decades now, but particularly since the late 1980s bomb blasts, mass shootings, random and targeted murders have been commonplace -- nowhere more so than in the country's largest city, Karachi. In recent months 18 Christians were killed when gunmen opened fire in a church in Bahawalpur; 11 Shi'as when the same thing happened in a mosque in Rawalpindi, and 12 women and children when a bomb exploded in a Shi'a Imambargah in Bhakkar, south Punjab. Dozens of individuals -- again mostly in Karachi and mostly Shi'a -- have also been killed.
What made Wednesday's attack different was the target of the attack, and its nature. Foreigners have been targeted before: journalist Daniel Pearl was executed by his anti-America kidnappers in January and two Americans were among five people killed in a grenade attack on a church in Islamabad in March. But, with 11 Frenchmen killed and 12 injured, the Karachi bombing was by far the most serious assault on foreigners in Pakistan.
What will have alarmed the authorities even more is the fact that it was carried out by a suicide bomber. That is a definite first in Pakistan. In all the attacks mentioned above the killers ensured they had an escape route. Police believe the man responsible for the Islamabad church attack was blown up by a grenade that went off early -- they do not think he intended to kill himself. But there is no doubt that Wednesday's bomber planned to die. As experience in other countries -- India, Sri Lanka, Israel -- has shown, there is very little security agencies can do to stop suicide killers.
No one has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, but both the above -- Western targets and suicide bombing -- point to an extremist Islamist group opposed to the American-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan, and Pakistan's support of that war. More particularly, someone opposed to the U-turns by President Musharraf on his Afghan and Kashmir policy, and his pledge to curb religious militancy. The French could have been targeted simply because they were Westerners, but more likely because France is a key ally of the US. Note that the bomber could have waited ten minutes and struck the New Zealand cricket team's coach -- they were staying at the same hotel.
The French government has pointed to Al-Qa'eda as the likely perpetrators of the attack. "Maybe it was owing to French role in the fight against terrorism," said Michelle Alliot-Marie, the newly appointed French defence minister, who flew into Karachi as soon as news of the attack broke.
President Musharraf, too, described it as the price Pakistan was paying for its support of the campaign against international terrorism. His Information Minister Nisar Memon pointed to the old enemy, India. In view of the fact that the Frenchmen were working on a submarine project with the Pakistan Navy, he argued that India had the most interest in trying to disrupt work on that project. Few people give credence to that theory, and the Indians have issued a vehement denial.
Pointing to foreign hands is a common response of the government to terrorist attacks: by doing so it hopes to deflect attention from its own security failings. In this case that strategy will not work. Questions are being asked at home and abroad about the seriousness of President Musharraf's campaign against religious extremism. Hundreds of religious activists and leaders of banned organisations were arrested after Musharraf announced his campaign in a speech on 12 January. But since then many -- including notorious figures like Azhar Masood and Fazal-ur-Rehman -- have been released. Furthermore, with the exception of arresting Sheikh Omar Saeed, the government has made little progress in hunting the perpetrators of previous attacks. Not a good record.
The government's other stock response to previous terrorist attacks was to carry out mass arrests and announce tightened security measures and improved intelligence. That too is being seen now. Hundreds of religious activists have been rounded up. On Saturday President Musharraf called a high level meeting to discuss the law and order situation. In a change from past practice, he also said he would be seeking foreign help to find the perpetrators. Many Pakistanis have interpreted that statement as an admission of failure.
It is clear that the international community, too, is increasingly losing faith in President Musharraf's ability to curb terrorism and militancy. Following the church attack in Islamabad, the US and Canada ordered all families of diplomatic personnel to leave the country permanently. Wednesday's attack will almost certainly lead to a bigger exodus -- by multinationals, NGO's as well as other countries' diplomatic staff.
The French have announced that they will continue cooperation with the Pakistan Navy on the Agosta submarine project -- on condition that the Pakistan government can provide security for its workers. But other countries and potential investors are bound to be put off by the deteriorating law and order situation. In a possible sign of things to come, Singapore Airlines announced the suspension of all its flight to Pakistan. Unless President Musharraf can show concrete improvements in law and order, all the economic reform and infrastructure development policies that his government has been pursuing will go to waste.
Other repercussions of the attack include the immediate departure of the New Zealand cricket team, due to start their second test against Pakistan on the morning of the blast. Their tour had been postponed once before, when the war in Afghanistan was underway. It is highly unlikely that they, or any other sports team, will be coming to Pakistan for many many months. Their departure reinforces Pakistan's international isolation.
Almost seven months on from the start of the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan is feeling the backlash. It is not pleasant and it could get much much worse.
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