The call for early elections in Argentina is giving rise to the hope that the transitional period the country is undergoing may finally be approaching a long-sought era of stability, writes Hisham El-Naggar It was a quiet week in Argentina. The dollar, a major barometre of stability, ceased its inexorable climb. But even as the US currency continued to plummet elsewhere, in troubled Latin America it climbed in value. Following two weeks of demonstrations, Argentines appear to have taken time off to enjoy the Indian summer that is currently punctuating the Southern Hemisphere's winter. The lull can be deceptive. But what is keeping things under control and inclining people to take a wait-and-see attitude is the decision by President Eduardo Duhalde's transitional government to call for early elections. There will be compulsory primaries for all political parties in November and a presidential election next March. Given the problems plaguing the economy, next year seems an eternity away. Still, the promise of elections has been credited with the renewed burst of cautious optimism that is encompassing the country. In a few months Argentines will be able to tell their politicians what they really think of them in what is hoped will be transparent, democratic elections. Which is why the current lull may herald a storm of unusual intensity. Politicians' reputations in Argentina have scraped rock-bottom in recent months and most have taken to surrounding themselves with bodyguards as protection from an irate population determined to hurl insults and, occasionally, more concrete objects at them. No candidate exceeds the 20 per cent approval mark in opinion polls, suggesting a close-run campaign is to come. Given recent events, it is wise to reflect on two things. First, recent frantic reports of Argentina's 'demise' have been greatly exaggerated. Unemployment is riding at a shockingly high 22 per cent while the almost one in four Argentines currently incapable of securing a regular job resort to the informal market. Odd jobs, self-employment and even bartering provide an outlet for economic creativity while supplying a few pesos. Solidarity networks -- decidedly passé in the roaring 90s when successful Argentines knew little and cared less about the victims of "the Argentine miracle" -- are on the increase as many people, particularly the young, organise in volunteer groups and neighbourhood assemblies. Secondly, much of the rest of the world, including some of Argentina's neighbours, appear to be falling prey to attacks of instability. This phenomenon is increasingly leading commentators to discredit the argument that Argentina's crisis came as a result of specific faults. It is also forcing a rethink of the workings of the supposedly infallible international financial markets and -- incredible as it may seem -- it is compelling the Bush administration to come up with something which was considered quite dispensable a few weeks ago -- a Latin America policy. Alerted by the advance of leftist candidates in the polls in Brazil, Argentina and Bolivia, the State Department sent Otto Reich, its ranking official for Latin American and Caribbean affairs, on a tour of Southern Cone countries. During a stop in Argentina, he related to the press that what the United States considers the essential attributes of an 'ideal' president are a firm commitment to free markets and the struggle against terrorism. Not being corrupt was a belated addition and only after a reporter drew Reich's attention to the issue. The implication is clear: the United States is not indifferent to the outcome of elections in key Latin American countries but for the wrong reasons. Examples of unsolicited interest by the world's sole superpower have been made clear by further undiplomatic announcements in past weeks. US-Latin American ties, which once appeared to be completely subordinated to the whims of a whimsical and unbending Treasury Department which stood for unmitigated IMF-designed orthodoxy, are now being managed again by the more pragmatic State Department. To drive the point home, Reich announced that Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill will be visiting Brazil and Argentina shortly. There is more to the symbolism than a very busy O'Neill fitting a forgotten region into his busy schedule at a time of financial turbulence across the international board. If O'Neill, who has produced some of the more critical statements about Latin America in the recent past, could adopt a more realistic approach to the region, he would realise that "punishing" defaulters like Argentina and hectoring would-be defaulters like Brazil has proven highly unproductive. The message seems to be the following: vote for candidates willing to work with us and you will reap the financial benefits. Not a minor advance, considering that O'Neill had been a firm believer in the dictum that nothing should be given to those who might waver in their commitment to orthodoxy. This makes for a colourful political process in Brazil and Argentina, two countries that face imminent elections and is leading Latin Americans to understand why "May you live in interesting times" is a curse sagacious Orientals are wont to hurl at their enemies.
