Tourism industry insiders fear the industry could be dealt a devastating blow in the event of a military strike against Iraq. Rehab Saad reports Although Egypt's winter tourism season appears promising, tourism officials, hoteliers and travel agents are worried about the future of the industry as the threat of a US military attack against Iraq looms ahead. According to official statistics, Egypt received about half a million tourists in October -- an 83 per cent rise compared to October 2001 and seven per cent compared to October 2000. Statistics also revealed that the figures for August, September and October are unprecedented compared to previous years. According to a report published by the Passports, Travel and Nationality Department of the Ministry of Interior, Egypt received 4.3 million tourists between January and October 2002, a four per cent increase over the same period in 2001. Compared to the same months last year, the tourist movement to Egypt grew by six per cent in July, 15 per cent in August, 34 per cent in September and 83 per cent in October. According to the report, the tourist drop that took place after 11 September 2001 is history. Despite these encouraging figures, Minister of Tourism Mamdouh El-Beltagui is sceptical about the future. The increasing talk of an American/British military attack against Iraq by the beginning of next year is casting a shadow on the tourism business. "If a war against Iraq broke out we will have to use crisis management logistics and mechanisms to safeguard the achievements of the Egyptian tourism industry," El- Beltagui said. Travel agents and hoteliers share El-Beltagui's worries. "In case a war breaks out, travellers will be afraid to come to the Middle East," said Munir Wissa, president of Escapade Travel. In fact, Wissa said, the mere threat of war is already affecting bookings. "Now there is the phenomenon of late bookings because travellers are worried to take a decision," he said. "Why should they come to Egypt now when a volcano is about to explode in the region?" Wissa said there have been less bookings this November than usual. "There are no cancellations, but there is a cautious attitude towards the region," he said. "We are offering promotions and discounts of between 10 to 20 per cent to attract travellers." Riad Qabil, secretary-general of the Egyptian Association of Travel Agents (EATA), said he learned through the experience gained from previous crises that travellers tend to confuse the various countries of the Middle East. "They will just think all of the Middle East is in turbulence," Qabil said. Meanwhile, as travellers to the Middle East will have to pay extra money for war-risks insurance, the price of flight tickets will rise. Qabil said that even the cruises touring Mediterranean ports will be affected. He is of the opinion that any military operation in the region would definitely result in a complete paralysis of the tourism business in Egypt and the Middle East. Sayed Moussa, tourism expert and former head of the Egyptian Tourism Authority (ETA), is worried that the negative consequences of a military strike against Iraq would cost Egypt the jobs of hundreds of people working in the tourism field. "In the last decade, because the number of tourists visiting Egypt has doubled, the number of hotels, travel agents, restaurants, bazaars, shops and industries related to tourism have increased," he said. According to official statistics, the tourism industry in Egypt employs 2.2 million people, directly and indirectly. Moreover, almost 70 industries and services are closely related to tourism. But Riad Qabil of EATA said these figures are underestimated. "Almost 10 million citizens are currently working in the tourism field in Egypt. We have almost 1,020 travel agencies, 130,000 hotel rooms besides a huge number of restaurants, shops, and other industries related to tourism," he said. Tourism is the primary source of foreign exchange revenues in Egypt, followed by the revenues of the Suez Canal, the remittances of Egyptian expatriates and oil revenues. Tourism figures have soared from one million tourists in 1982 to 2.5 million in 1993 and 5.5 million in 2001. Hotel rooms have increased from 18,900 rooms in 1982 to 58,000 in 1993 and 130,000 in 2001. Tourism revenues have risen from $3.4 million in 1982 to $4.5 billion in 2001. "I believe the effect of the war against Iraq on the tourism business will be global. The situation will be like that of the second gulf war between the coalition army and Iraq when the global tourist movement was severely hit," Moussa said. "In such a situation, we will undoubtedly have to resort to alternative markets, such as Russia and the Commonwealth countries, as well as the Arab market including the Gulf and North Africa," Qabil said.
