What are the chances of the Ghad Party's founder, Ayman Nour, running in the coming presidential polls, Mona El-Nahhas asks During a meeting of the higher council of the liberal Ghad Party last week Ayman Nour, the party's founder and former chairman, was "chosen" to run as the party's candidate in the presidential elections scheduled for 2011. Ihab El-Kholi, the party's current chairman and once a close friend of Nour, says, however, that the nomination is not binding on the party. Moreover, Nour served a prison sentence following his previous presidential run, making him ineligible as a candidate. Decisions made during the meeting, says El-Kholi, are all null and void. "The party's statutes state clearly that calling for meetings of the higher council is the prerogative of the party chairman. I did not call for the meeting and so it lacked any legitimacy," El-Kholi told Al-Ahram Weekly. Nor, says El-Kholi, does the higher council that met have any authority. It was dissolved last November, after its electoral term ended. Nominations for its replacement begin on 6 March. "It's the newly elected council which will decide on the party's presidential candidate," El-Kholi says, adding that Nour may not be such a shoe-in. "The Ghad may opt to support the candidate who wins wide support among opposition forces." El-Kholi argues that to name the party's presidential candidate ahead of the parliamentary polls due to be staged later this year is premature since Article 76 of the constitution stipulates that only parties that have won a parliamentary seat can field a presidential candidate. Sources close to the party say the relationship between El-Kholi and Nour has recently deteriorated as the former has become increasingly worried that his role is being marginalised. Nour denies the existence of any dispute with El-Kholi beyond "minor disagreements in point of view". Those "minor disagreements" evidently extend to interpretations of the party statutes. The higher council meeting, Nour told Al-Ahram Weekly, fully accorded with Article 47 which he says entitles the party's secretary-general to summon the higher council members for a meeting. And their term, he continued, ends next May, following a six-month extension. Whatever the legality of the decision made by the party's higher council, Nour faces a bigger hurdle. It is far from clear how he thinks he can get around Article 25 of the penal code which bans convicts from practising their political rights, including the right to stand in elections, until six years have passed since their release. In December 2005 Cairo Criminal Court sentenced Nour to a five-year jail term on charges of forging the signatures necessary to gain official recognition for his party. Nour insists the allegations were groundless and aimed only at undermining his political career. He was released in February 2009 on health grounds. Few commentators expect Nour to run, and even if he does they doubt he could repeat the second place he achieved in the last poll, the first multi-candidate presidential elections in Egypt's history. Nour's public appeal was wider then, and his subsequent separation from his wife is thought to have diminished his popularity. His party, too, is in turmoil. It has split into two factions, one led by Nour and the other by his rival Moussa Mustafa Moussa. The appearance of other possible candidates, including Mohamed El-Baradei, former chairman of the International Agency for Atomic Energy, and Amr Moussa, Arab League secretary-general, further complicates the picture. Nour has been criticised for dealing with the obstacles facing him as if they were insubstantial. He has repeatedly said that he has a legal card which he would use in time and which would help him find a solution. However, Nour was reluctant to reveal such card now. Since his release, Nour has been acting the role of presidential candidate, making political tours of different governorates to address the public and regain their support, yet he has publicly said that he would stand aside should El-Baradei decide to join the Ghad Party and run in the polls as its candidate. Earlier this week Nour paid short visits to Mehala and Port Said. During a press conference, held at his Zamalek home on Saturday, Nour announced that the second stage of his "knocking on doors" campaign was about to start, taking in the provinces, small villages and slum areas. The first stage of the campaign, which had taken in major towns and cities, was, said Nour, a success. "The public reaction was really great." Yet, says political analyst Amr Hashem Rabie, Nour seemed more popular while in jail. "Following his release, it was difficult for him to accept that he was not a legal political player. His sole concern seemed to be to manoeuvre himself to be at the centre of events, sometimes by fabricating stories and uttering contradictory statements." "Before revealing his intention to run in the coming presidential polls, Nour should have first made sure he could overcome the legal obstacles hindering his nomination," argues Rabie. "If he does not do so soon the public will not take him seriously as a candidate." At the party's higher council meeting, which coincided with St Valentine's Day, Gamila Ismail, Nour's wife, appeared briefly for the first time since her separation from Nour last April. Nour welcomed Ismail and handed her an award of merit. Ismail, who had battled for her husband's freedom while he was in jail, asked for a divorce last April. Her brief appearance was viewed by some as a possible sign that their estrangement would soon end.
