Israel's probable next government is already flexing its muscles. And it is ringing alarms across the region, writes Graham Usher in Jerusalem With polls showing the Israeli electorate poised to return a Likud-led coalition for the Israeli elections on 28 January, several decisions this week have underscored its emerging political culture: aggressively nationalist, occasionally messianic and exclusively Zionist. Coupled with the threat of a US-led war on Iraq, it will cast the darkest of shadows across the region. The culture can be gauged from the verdicts so far delivered by Israel's Central Elections Committee, a cross-party panel currently sitting to hear 13 requests to disqualify candidates and parties running for the 16th Knesset, including Israel's three main Arab lists: Hadash-Ta'al, the United Arab List and Azmi Bishara's Balad Party. The first sign of things to come occurred on Sunday, when the 41-member panel voted to approve the candidacy of Baruch Marvel. Marvel is the "former" leader of Israel's racist Kach movement, which advocates the transfer of Palestinians from Israel and the occupied territories and was banned in Israel after one of followers, Baruch Goldstein, shot dead 29 Palestinians while at prayer in Hebron's Ibrahimi mosque in February 1994. Marvel says Kach no longer exists and that he now accepts "the principles of democracy", evidenced by his decision to join Israel's far-right Herut Party (whose platform also calls for "encouraging the emigration" of Palestinians). Twenty-one members of the CEC said they believed him, including MKs from Likud, the National Religious Party and Shas. The 18 other members did not, including the Labour Party, Meretz, the Arab lists and the committee's chairman, Justice Mishael Cheshin. "An examination of the material brought before us shows that Marzel is the leader or one of the important leaders of Kach. There is absolutely no doubt Marzel is [still] connected [to the movement] and ... working for the same disgusting aims as in the past," said Cheshin. The Labour Party has said it will petition Israel's High Court of Justice to overturn the decision. A similar fate awaits Ahmed Tibi, former aide to Yasser Arafat and leader of Israel's Ta'al Party or Arab Party for renewal. On Monday the CEC heard requests for the disqualification of Ta'al, Hadash, the UAL as well as its leader Abdul-Malik Dahamshe. It rejected all four but approved a ban on Tibi because he defines the PLO as a national liberation movement and supports the Intifada. It was a charge to which he, together with just about every other Palestinian, could only plead guilty. "I am a new kind of [Israeli] Arab, a proud leader with a homeland," he told the CEC on Monday. "We are finished with the mukhtars who did everything they were told." He also charged that the CEC's judgment was not only about his national identification but a ploy to remove any kind of political representation for Israel's Palestinian minority. "We have been kicked out of the community and delegitimised. We are being told we don't have the right to protest, to hold a different opinion." Tibi will also appeal this disqualification before Israel's High Court of Justice. So, almost certainly, will Bishara and his Balad Party, currently expected to retain its two seats in the next Knesset. Last February Bishara was stripped of his parliamentary immunity for speeches in which he hailed Hizbullah's liberation of south Lebanon and defended the right of Palestinians to resist occupation. Based on undisclosed "secret" evidence supplied by Israel's Shin Bet intelligence service, his Balad Party is now being accused of aiming to destroy the state of Israel, aiding "enemies of the state" and "inciting" Arabs to rebellion. Unlike Tibi's disqualification, Israel's Attorney-General Elyahim Rubinstein backs Bishara and Balad's exclusion. For this reason, Bishara's lawyers and supporters believe it will be approved. They also see the "sedition" charges as a smokescreen. The real motive is political, they insist. Bishara and Balad have become the leading advocates of national rights for Israel's Palestinian minority and of the call for transforming Israel from being a Jewish state into a state for all its citizens. Less than three years ago, Bishara expressed such views from the floor of the Knesset. Clearly, what was tolerated then to the Israeli consensus is tolerable no more. If Bishara is disqualified and he and Tibi lose their appeals to High Court, the impact on the Palestinians participation in the elections could be dramatic. Parties like Hadash insist participation is crucial, if only prevent the expected Likud majority becoming an absolute landslide. But many Palestinians see a boycott as the only response to a state that appears bent on denying them any form of independent national representation. In this at least they agree with an editorial on Tuesday in Israel's leading Yediot Aharonot newspaper: "The message [from the CEC] has already been sent," it said. "For the Jewish political system, Arab representatives are illegitimate."
