The stage is nearly set for the Bush administration to launch a war against Iraq. The challenge now is to find the trigger. Khaled Dawoud reports from Washington With the United States continuing a massive military build-up in the Gulf, working to double its troops there within a few weeks to 100,000, few observers believe that war against Iraq could still be averted. After delivering an emotional speech to 4,000 young soldiers at Fort Hood, Texas last week in which he declared that the US military was "ready and prepared", US President George W Bush shed a few tears as he stood amidst his troops, listening to them singing, "The Army's is on its way. Count off the cadence loud and strong." "We are ready. We're prepared," Bush said. "And should the United States be compelled to act, our troops will be acting in the finest traditions of America. Should [Iraqi President] Saddam Hussein seal his fate by refusing to disarm, by ignoring the opinion of the world, you will be fighting not to conquer anybody, but to liberate people," he added. Reflecting the ideological aspect of Bush's intended war against Iraq, the US president again claimed that his administration would resort to force in the name of defending freedom and bringing justice to people suffering oppression -- not to secure a steady supply of oil or serve Israel's interests, as critics of the administration have offered. "See, we believe in freedom. No matter what their oppressors may say, the people of Iraq have no love for tyranny. Like all human beings, they desire and they deserve to live in liberty and to live in dignity. America seeks more than the defeat of terror. We seek the advance of human freedom in a world at peace. That is the charge history has given us, and that is the charge we will keep," Bush said. In a sign that Washington views a 27 January meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Iraq as a possible trigger for war, US officials disclosed that the US Navy 1,000-bed hospital ship Comfort set sail on Monday, headed for the Gulf region on a journey that is expected to take about three weeks. US Army officials also announced that the military had alerted more than 10,000 reservists to prepare for possible overseas duty as early as this week to support the build-up. At least 20,000 soldiers, now including ground troops, are also heading to the war zone. UN weapons inspectors are due to submit their first detailed evaluation of Iraq's compliance with Security Council resolution 1441 on 27 January. Within the following few days, Bush is expected to deliver his annual "State of the Union" speech during which he will probably announce the next US move. Troop movements and Bush's heated rhetoric came at the same time administration sources started leaking reports to the press on almost-finished plans for running Iraq after the expected fall of Saddam Hussein. The plans include occupying the country for at least 18 months, seizing control of the oil fields and holding trials for the president's top aides and, of course, the Iraqi leader himself if he remains alive. A US military commander will be in charge of running the country, at least in the first few months, but a civil administrator will be appointed later, possibly by the United Nations, to oversee reconstruction efforts and the formation of a new Iraqi government, US officials involved in the planning said. The reported US plans amount to the Americans' most ambitious reconstruction efforts of a post-war country since its occupations of Japan and Germany at the end of World War II. With all these steps, few observers tend to take seriously Bush's repeated claims that he continues to prefer solving the crisis with Iraq peacefully, or that the Iraqi leader "still has time" to disarm voluntarily, as he told reporters on Monday. Instead, the US leader, who disregarded all criticism and charges of double standards in dealing with Iraq as compared to North Korea, seems to be buying time in order to assemble his troops before launching a war. "The US could use the false Iraqi declaration [about its weapons programmes handed to the United Nations on 7 December] as the cause for war," said Martin Indyk, former US ambassador to Israel, and Kenneth Pollack, former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) analyst on Iraq, in a joint editorial published recently. "This would not require declaring Iraq in material breach now and showing its hand prematurely. Rather, the Bush administration could take the time it needs to 'study' the Iraqi declaration, discussing its falsehoods and fabrications with allied governments until it has lined up all the necessary political and military ducks. Once the best case has been made and the preparations completed [probably in a few weeks], President Bush could announce that, in accordance with United Nations Resolution 1441, we and our allies have concluded that Iraq is in material breach of the 1991 cease-fire resolution and therefore the US will lead a coalition to disarm Iraq by force." Repeated statements by Bush and other top officials, including Secretary of State Colin Powell, on the fallacy of Iraq's 12,000-page declaration seem to confirm the analysis by Indyk and Pollack. US officials have little hope that inspectors may uncover banned weapons before the deadline at the end of January. However, the administration was likely to accuse Iraq of failing to declare its entire stock of banned weapons, and that could be a good enough reason to trigger the war. Some administration officials also cling to the long-shot that the increasing American pressure and the obvious military build-up may lead to an internal coup against the Iraqi president by some of his closest aides. US officials also welcomed reported efforts by some Arab countries to convince Hussein to leave Iraq and live in exile as one way to avert a war, saying that this would be the best thing the Iraqi leader could do. But, in reality, few administration officials believe this to be a viable option, considering the Iraqi leader's character and likely doubts with respect to any US pledges not to try him as a war criminal. The United States again dropped leaflets this week on Iraq, urging people to come forward with any information on weapons programmes and issuing stern warnings to military leaders not to use any weapons of mass destruction against invading American troops. US officials, belittling international opposition to their war plans, continue to believe that many countries will join the US-British effort as soon as military action starts in Iraq. "At the 11th hour, many countries will recognise where their interests lie, and few would choose to side against the United States," said one US official.
