What are the likely consequences of a change at the helm of the Muslim Brotherhood, asks Omayma Abdel-Latif To judge by the media coverage Friday's death of the Muslim Brotherhood's sixth general guide was a major political event. Pages of commentary appeared in the press on the fate of what most observers consider Egypt's most efficacious opposition group. And while the debate tended to focus on who will succeed Ma'moun El-Hodeibi other, potentially more important questions were raised over the future of the 75-year old movement. As expected, a routine change of guard took place with the appointment of 75 year old Muhammed Mahdi Akef, who belongs to the group's old guard, as the new guide. No sweeping generational shifts were made. News reports of an ongoing power struggle over the issue of succession were repeatedly denied by the group's leading figures, including the new acting General Guide, 83-year-old Mohamed Hilal, a lawyer from the movement's old guard. Speaking to Al- Ahram Weekly, leading Brotherhood figures stressed that everything was being done to ensure a smooth transition of power. They cited the Brotherhood statute, issued in 1982, as the sole reference in determining the succession. "There are stated rules and regulations that will ensure a smooth transfer of power and we will stick to them," Essam El-Erian, a leading member of the Brotherhood's Shura Council told the Weekly. He described news reports about divisions within the movement as "fabricated by the media". The statute stipulates that the General Guide must be named from among the 15 member Maktab Al- Irshad (General Guidance Bureau), the body responsible for formulating policies. And though the selection must be made within 30 days El-Erian has confirmed that the name of the new guide will be announced sooner rather than later. The balance of power within the GGB tilts in favour of the so-called old guard, conservative in their views and in favour of promoting the group's social rather than political role. There are only two members who belong to the reformist wing inside the group -- Abdel-Moneim Abul-Futouh and Mohamed Ali Beshr. The Brothers' critics, meanwhile, argue that it is precisely the selection mechanism of its leaders that has prevented the group from attaining the levels of political maturity reached by other Islamic movements in the region. The group, they charge, is concerned with preserving unity at the expense of any other political ambitions. "The most difficult challenge facing the group now is how to maintain its unity and structural cohesion in the face of external and internal pressures for change," says Amr Elchoubaki, an analyst of political Islamic movements at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Any plans for radical internal reform or restructuring of the group will be shelved for the time being, he believes, because the priority is "to preserve the old formula of coexistence" between different trends within the group on the one hand, and with the Egyptian government on the other." Mohamed El-Mursi, leader of the Brotherhood's bloc in the People's Assembly, insists that the change in leader is unlikely to have an impact on the Brotherhood's relationship with the state. "We will continue to pursue a gradualist approach to bring about change," he explained. "It is unthinkable that we will depart from present policies vis-a-vis the state or other political forces. Total confrontation is not on our agenda," he told the Weekly . By the same token observers think it unlikely the Egyptian government will change its own position towards the movement. The policy of containment, coupled with preemptive strikes, will continue. The task of the group's next leader will not be easy. After 75 years of legal, quasi-legal and illegal status it remains to be seen whether or not the Muslim Brotherhood will be able to maintain unity in the face of attempts to suppress or liquidate it.
