The assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin empowered Hamas and the only way to defuse its effect is to accept this, writes Graham Usher from Gaza and Ramallah "We know Bush is the enemy of God, the enemy of Islam and the enemy of the Muslim people," raged Abdul-Aziz Al- Rantisi, Hamas's new political leader in Gaza. He was speaking on Sunday at a rally at Gaza's Islamic University hours after the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution condemning Israel's assassination of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin last week. The Arab summit in Tunisia had also just collapsed due to "divisions" over the issue of political reform in the Arab world. Rantisi did not spare Arab leaders the lash of his tongue. "Your failure means Israel is rewarded for its crimes," he said. "Yassin's blood begs you to close the [US and Israeli] embassies, consulates, trade offices and stop meeting with murderers led by Sharon." The Palestinian Authority's response was understandably cooler given it faces an Israeli "disengagement" plan the main contours of which are being negotiated between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Washington and only secondarily with Egypt and Jordan, and not at all with the official Palestinian leadership. It was "deeply saddened" by the failure of the summit, but "welcomed" Egypt's rescue plan to re-host it in the near future. On this issue -- as on so many others -- Hamas is closer to the pulse of the Palestinian and Arab peoples than are the PA or other Arab leaders. Even before the debacle in Tunis a poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) showed that 86 per cent of Palestinians believe they "cannot count on Arab states to support them in regaining their rights". The same survey showed that two thirds of Palestinians believe Sharon's withdrawal from Gaza is due to the Hamas-led armed resistance, though 61 per cent believe Sharon "is not serious and will not withdraw". Should he do so, 58 per cent of Palestinians would prefer the PA to negotiate the withdrawal as against 41 per cent who would rather have Hamas negotiate. And while there are greater and lesser majorities for armed attacks on Israeli soldiers, settlers and civilians, 84 per cent support a mutual cessation of violence, 70 per cent saw new Palestinian cease-fire and 74 per cent reconciliation between the Palestinian and Israeli peoples once a Palestinian state is established. For PSR Director Khalil Shikaki these "utterly contradictory" results show that most Palestinians "have not yet bought into the picture that the Israel-Palestinian conflict is a small part of the greater contest of Islam against the West". But he says that Rantisi's speech in Gaza is a warning that this could happen "if Washington and other Western countries do not see the difference between Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the one hand and Osama Bin Laden on the other." "Hamas will not accept the Zionist presence in Palestine," Rantisi said at the Islamic University, then qualified the statement in terms that are at one with mainstream nationalist Palestinian and Arab opinion. "There can be no peace with the settlements and the assassination of Sheikh Yassin and his comrades," he continued. One week before he was murdered Yassin was in discussions with the PA and the other Palestinians over the shape of the Palestinian table that would emerge following any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas was ready to agree to end all military operations in and from Gaza in return for "partnership" in the political leadership and running of a civil administration of Gaza. "If the Israeli withdrawal [from Gaza] is absolute and total, Hamas in essence will become a political party in the Gaza Strip and begin participating in government," Yassin was quoted as saying on a Hamas Web site. Will Rantisi adhere to this position? In the short term probably not, says former PA Culture Minister Ziad Abu Amr, who participated in the discussions. Hamas's political leadership is now essentially an underground movement. "Rantisi knows he is living on borrowed time and has no need to make concessions to anyone." Hamas is also under "enormous pressure to make the response to Yassin commensurate to the magnitude of the crime," says a Hamas source. Most agree that in the longer term Rantisi is unlikely to depart from policy lines set down by Yassin and the wider Hamas leadership. "One should remember that Hamas is not just a military movement. It is a social and political movement. It cannot afford to be reduced to one militant line," says Abu Amr. According to Israeli press reports, Egypt is involved in a new initiative aimed at ensuring "security" during any Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Egypt was also instrumental in the Hamas, PA and faction talks in Gaza "aimed at agreeing on a common political programme, mechanisms for decision making and an agreement on how to manage post- occupation Gaza," said Abu Amr. There is a clear tension between these two roles. Most Palestinians believe it can only be defused by the PA, Egypt and others accepting reality -- that Hamas is now the most popular Palestinian movement in Gaza. It has to be integrated into the emerging Palestinian political system by taking up Yassin's offer of a new relationship based on "partnership" and power sharing. And the only way that can happen, says Shikaki, is through the PA organising elections ahead of any Gaza withdrawal. "Elections now will not give the PA and Fatah an opportunity to regain some political legitimacy. It will integrate Hamas into the Palestinian political system. Once Hamas is accepted as a legitimate player and is given an opportunity to capitalise on the public support it has gained it will moderate its stand. Palestinian Islamists remain part of the wider Palestinian, Egyptian and Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood. They are not radical movements. The greatest mistake anybody can make is to compare them with Al-Qa'eda."
