Representatives of Iraq's Election Boycott Front tell Amira Howeidy why a vote under occupation is bad for their country Should Iraqi elections, due on 30 January, actually take place, the process will at best be unique, at worst a dangerous mess. A swathe of political parties and groups has announced it will boycott the vote and even the Iraqi president said he was in favour of postponing elections until the security situation improved. Last week he was forced to reverse his position following a meeting with the American president in Washington. As the poll approaches positions have hardened on all sides -- from those contesting the election, those boycotting it and, perhaps most significantly, those resisting occupation. On the ground the situation is far more nuanced than many reports suggest, though the lack of reliable information and a virtual media blackout make it almost impossible to disentangle fact from fiction. No wonder, then, that the visit of a five-member delegation from the Election Boycott Front to Cairo this week -- they were guests of the Arab League -- was received enthusiastically, at least in non-official quarters. That they were placed in a shabby three-star hotel, in stark contrast with the lavish November Sharm El-Sheikh ministerial conference on Iraq, spoke volumes about their host's official position vis-�-vis the players in Iraq. In a roundtable discussion with Al-Ahram Weekly the delegation, headed by prominent Iraqi politician and ex-information minister Salah Omar Al-Ali, painted an unremittingly grim picture of the situation in Iraq as election day approaches amid growing violence and the prospect of civil war. "This is a statement issued and signed by 69 independent political groups, religious authorities ( marjyia ), tribal leaders and independent public figures," Mothana Hareth Al-Dari, spokesman for the influential Sunni Muslim Cleric's Association (MCA) said. The statement advocated an "absolute boycott" of the elections. No vote, it continued, "promoted by the occupation forces" can result in sovereignty and independence for the Iraqi people. It cited "vicious" attacks by the occupation on Iraqi cities like Najaf, Karbalaa, Samara, Mosul, Baghdad and "especially the genocidal war launched on Falluja", as among the reasons for boycotting the elections. "The undersigned realise that...the results of the vote have already been decided in favour of those supporting the occupation." The signatories include Sunni, Shia, Christian, Turkman, Kurdish, Islamic and secular groups. Rushing to hold elections in the current climate is, says the delegation, an attempt "to legitimise the occupation". Alongside their own statement they presented a second petition, signed by 106 prominent Iraqi figures in exile, denouncing the elections as a "ploy to fake the will of the Iraqi people". Opposition to the coming elections is gaining momentum. Shia leader Muqtada Al-Sadr, in his most recent statement on the issue, has tied his own participation in elections to the departure of occupation troops. A Shia electoral list was announced last week, with the blessing of Iraq's senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani. Significantly, it did not include supporters of Al-Sadr. The 275 candidate list is expected to dominate the Iraqi parliament and has created the false impression that the boycott is essentially Sunni, while Iraq's Shia are happy to contest the vote. "You must realise," cautioned Al-Ali, "that there is a big difference between a Shia list and the Shia list. Yes, there is an electoral list, but it doesn't represent all the Shia. Don't forget that the Al-Sadrist movement is influential in the Iraqi street and it is boycotting the elections." The elections' opponents, he stressed, include both Sunni and Shia. "A section of Iraq's Shia has been politicised by parties that work closely with the occupation," says Safaa Al-Ejeizi, spokesman for the National Front for the Liberation of Iraq which is close to the Al-Sadrist movement. He singled out the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution and Al-Dawaa as Shia parties who "are harming" their supposed constituencies. "I speak now as a Shia," he told the Weekly, "and what they are doing is dividing the nationalist line. We will not hesitate to expose those who do that." It is difficult to assess the extent of the boycott of elections in a country which for decades was subject to one-party rule and then, in a period of less than two years ago, saw the emergence of hundreds of hitherto unknown political groupings. "We can't provide statistics on the extent of the boycott. They simply don't exist in Iraq," says Al-Ali. "Facts and figures are often distorted. What is clear is that those boycotting the elections represent major political currents in Iraq, including the nationalist and Islamic trends." And, according to the MCA's Al-Dhari, "one quarter of the election boycott front is Shia." The 30 January vote will determine membership of the 275-seat National Assembly, charged with drafting the new Iraqi constitution and electing an interim president. An elected government is scheduled to take office some time in December 2005. Given that what is at stake is a voice in shaping the future of Iraq, should they really be boycotting the vote? "We get that question a lot," says Al-Ali, "that this is Iraq's chance to emerge from crisis." Elections, he believes, are the "key" to ending the crisis "but the January vote will be held in truly exceptional circumstances. The outcome of the elections will determine the format of the Iraqi state, it will decide Iraq's fate and that of future generations. It is for these reasons that elections must be held under the best possible conditions." "We are occupied. That is a fact. The occupiers have a team of Iraqis willing to work with them. The coming elections will be completely rigged. We are not making emotional decisions here, we have studied the situation carefully and weighed our options. After extensive meetings with many parties and people we came to the conclusion that contesting the elections would contribute to the process of legitimising the occupation. We reject the occupation and its outcomes and this includes the elections." Nazla Al-Jabouri, an academic in Al-Mostenseriya University and a member of the Women's Will Association, claims the interim government is already seeking to rig the elections. "They are rigging ration cards and granted one million Iranians residing in the country the Iraqi citizenship in order to affect the vote," she said. Al-Ali adds that the government is threatening to withdraw ration cards from those who do not vote. In some cases the price of opposing the elections has been fatal. Three members of the Muslim Cleric's Association (MCA) have been assassinated. "We expect an escalation in operations not just against the MCA but against all those who openly oppose the elections," Al-Dari explains. "There are serious attempts to silence and intimidate politicians and, in some cases, liquidate them." If the aim is to silence opposition before the elections it is proving impossible to achieve. As the elections approach violence is spiralling out of control. This week alone at least eight US troops were killed in Anbar province, which includes Falluja. On Monday at least seven people were killed and 17 wounded when a suicide bomber detonated his car at an entrance to Baghdad's Green Zone. On Sunday US Marines were again pounding Falluja almost a month after the start of their massive military offensive on the city to quash resistance fighters. "The Iraqi resistance has clearly developed its operations in the past few weeks," says Al-Ali. "It has shifted from small operations targeting those working with occupation to exercising full control of towns and cities for hours, days and sometimes weeks. They appear to be preparing for a more advanced stage that will include liberating entire Iraqi cities of occupation." "The resistance made it clear that it is against the elections and that it will escalate operations to climax on 30 January," notes Abdul-Sattar Al-Samaraai' of the Iraqi Popular Culture Association. "The resistance controls two-thirds of Baghdad at night already." But who constitutes the Iraqi resistance? While no one has a clear answer to this question Al-Dari offers an assessment based on statements issued by resistance groups and the occupation forces. According to US statements there are 100 resistance operations per day which, he points out, means 3,000 a month. Al-Dari believes there are 40 resistance groups and that only two or three of them are responsible for the abductions and beheadings. "The American and Iraqi media deliberately focus on the few groups responsible for beheadings in order to tarnish the image of the resistance." But that is among the least of the delegation's worries. The prospect of civil war, in the words of Al-Ali, must be taken seriously. "All options are on the table. When the occupation in Iraq realises that its presence is seriously threatened it will consider its options, which include dividing Iraq."
