Egypt's new government has the right intentions, writes Ibrahim Nafie, but it still needs to set concrete goals Since coming to power in July, the Ahmed Nazif cabinet has brought a new spirit to government. This spirit is particularly evident in the cabinet's Economic Group, which has demonstrated an unprecedented unity of purpose, resolve and courage in formulating the policies which are needed to spur our economy on to achieve goals which had previously seemed unattainable. In his first statement to the People's Assembly, the prime minister outlined his government's primary goals. These were: firstly, to raise economic growth rates by stimulating higher levels of domestic and foreign investment, which in turn would create new job opportunities; secondly, to protect those in lower income brackets channelling subsidies more efficiently and enhancing the provision of essential goods and public services; thirdly, to make a tangible improvement in both the quantity and quality of public services, in order to meet increasing demand in the fields of education, health care and transportation; and, fourthly, to promote institutional government founded on respect for human rights and civil liberties by enhancing the autonomy of the judiciary, expanding public participation in politics, safeguarding our military defence capacities and strengthening the police and security services' ability to serve the public. This four-point programme itself testifies to how well the Nazif government appreciates the scale and complexity of the difficulties it must overcome if it is ever to realise its objectives. Such difficulties, it knows, will not simply evaporate at the wave of a magic wand. Indeed, the need to strike a balance between stepping up the pace of the transition to a market economy on the one hand, and protecting disadvantaged sectors of the population from the detrimental side- effects of economic reform on the other, is becoming ever more acute. This government is quite aware that its policies will ultimately be judged by the extent to which it is able to keep faith with its social commitments. At the same time, the government is determined to remain practical and realistic. As Nazif stated in his address to parliament, he is determined not to promise more than he can deliver. Rather, his government will seek to offer appropriate solutions that can stimulate long-term sustainable development, while simultaneously ensuring that urgent short-term demands are met, as long as these feed into our overall developmental aims. In his statement, the prime minister went on to detail eight programmes that his government intends to implement and which, taken together, constitute a comprehensive policy for economic reform and employment. As every new job opportunity created depends upon a sizeable capital investment, the government must take measures to attract investment in those sectors which offer competitive advantages, tangible added value and the greatest potential to optimise our natural and human resources. The prime sectors it has identified in this regard are tourism, real estate, agriculture, the petrochemical industry and information technology. The government has also stated its belief that its job is to provide the fundamental infrastructure for investment, and that the private sector should lead the investment process itself. While we have no bones to pick with the government's overall aims and strategies, it is high time it set precise targets that are achievable within specific timeframes. "Raising growth rates", for example, is too vague; what we need are projections of the rate that is to be achieved by the end of next year and the year after. Similarly, in his statement, Nazif pointed out that the tourist industry has the potential to create 200,000 new jobs for every additional million tourists per year. However, does that mean that this million is an actual target, or just wishful thinking? By defining specific targets, the government can avoid raising unrealistic expectations, while giving the public a yardstick by which to assess their performance objectively. In its statement, the government stressed the positive impact its policies have had on the investment climate over the past few months. It noted in particular that the index of the most traded stocks has risen by 65 per cent, and there has been a 30 per cent rise in foreign trading on the stock market. Both of these are strong indicators of the growing interest of foreign and Arab investors in investing directly in Egyptian industry. Still, the government needs to rack up more concrete achievements in order to be sure that it really is moving in the right direction. For one thing, the current activity on the stock market is simply a continuation of a trend that began before the new government took office. In addition, we need evidence that trading reflects actual long-term investment in the economy, and not just "hot money" looking for a quick profit. Higher levels of direct investment are the true criteria of the success or failure of the government's policies. We are therefore looking forward to seeing the government fulfil its pledge that it will produce a number of promising investment projects for which it will conduct the feasibility studies needed to attract foreign investment. After all, true economic development entails creating new sources of wealth, not merely recycling those that already exist. With regard to the development of agricultural production, I can only take my hat off to the government's plan to readjust cultivation priorities. The intention is to raise our level of self-sufficiency in such staples as wheat, oil-producing crops, lentils and fava beans, thereby reducing import costs and keeping the prices of these products down, without harming the viability of our export crops. The plan perfectly epitomises the government's dual aim of spurring economic development while protecting the interests of those in the lower income brackets. Here too, though, the government could have been clearer on the means by which it intends to bring about this major restructuring. In short, as admirable as are this government's spirit, and as laudable as are its objectives and plans, a little fine-tuning is still needed to enhance confidence, both at home and abroad, in its programme of economic reforms.
