The consequences of Al-Hariri's assassination go beyond Lebanon's borders. Dina Ezzat reports on the concerns of many The assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Al-Hariri sounded the alarm bells in many Arab capitals. The bombing in the heart of Beirut of the supposedly secure motorcade of the ex-prime minister turned opposition figure was a dramatic though not unfamiliar scene to the Lebanese. However, for the ruling regimes in most Arab capitals Al- Hariri's assassination compounded a dilemma of multiple security and political concerns. The absence of Arab heads of state at Al-Hariri's funeral yesterday, Arab sources say, was not just a sign of concern for their personal safety. Security worries are real but so are the political sensitivities involved. "Al-Hariri was in a political dispute with the Lebanese president. He was also about to get involved in a political confrontation with Syria. For any Arab leader to go to his funeral would mean a declaration of alliance with the opposition in Lebanon," said one Arab diplomat. He added that the refusal of Al-Hariri's family to include the government in the funeral blocked the road before any Arab head of state who might have thought of going to Beirut to pay his last respects to this highly influential Lebanese politician and businessman who had personal ties with almost every Arab leader and who maintained huge investments in many Arab countries. Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, Algerian Parliament Speaker Ammar Saadani, Egyptian Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, Egyptian National Democratic Party member Gamal Mubarak, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al-Faisal and Yemeni Foreign Minister Abu Bakr Al-Qerabi were the high- ranking Arab officials at the funeral. Other Arab capitals sent representatives but not of a particularly high level. Meanwhile, security was tightened in the countries bordering Lebanon as well as many other Arab states. The close relationship between Al-Hariri, who held Saudi nationality, and the Saudi royal family -- the ties that allegedly prompted his assassination according to a video tape aired by Al- Jazeera on Monday evening -- and the recent wave of fighting between Saudi police and Islamist militants prompted heightened Saudi security measures. "Nobody really believes [the allegations made] in this tape [that suggest Al-Hariri was killed because of his close association with the Saudi regime]. It is hard to believe that a group that was never heard of could carry out the assassination," said a Saudi source in Cairo. However, he added that the message sent to Saudi Arabia was clear: more military confrontations could be forthcoming. Also on exceptionally high alert were Amman, Cairo and obviously Damascus which has 14,000 troops in Lebanon. Security forces in the Palestinian territories were instructed by the Palestinian president to exercise caution. Arab capitals stated they were unsure about who was behind the assassination. Since nobody was certain about who did it, security concerns were high. But Arab diplomats argue security is not the worst fear of Arab capitals at the moment. "There are genuine fears of the security spillover effect. There are fears there could be bomb blasts in Syria or even Jordan. Nobody can say how the situation will evolve in the Palestinian territories and Palestinian refugee camps [in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan] if [initial investigations] prove the involvement of Palestinians in the killing," said one Arab diplomat. He added that political concerns were now as pressing for Arab capitals as security worries. Arab diplomats say there are genuine concerns that Al- Hariri's killing could re-ignite a civil war in Lebanon even if it is not of the scale of the 1970s. Should this happen, diplomats say, the whole political scene in the Middle East will shift dramatically. "Should this happen it would become unrealistic to talk of reviving the Middle East peace process, even on the Palestinian track. The situation will be far too complicated to allow this kind of talk," one Egyptian diplomat warned. And according to a Cairo-based Palestinian diplomat, it would become almost absurd to expect Palestinian factions to put down their arms and demilitarise the Intifada if the civil war erupts again in Lebanon. "If we are talking about a civil war in Lebanon, it means we are again talking about a potential Israeli involvement -- even if not invasion -- and we are talking about a militant confrontation between Hizbullah and its supporters with Israel," he said. Legitimate as the concerns are of the Palestinians, Egyptians and Jordanians over the political and other consequences of the assassination of Al-Hariri, they do not compare to the fears of Syria. Confronted with direct accusations from the Lebanese opposition and indirectly from the international community, in addition to some implicit finger- pointing from several Arab capitals, Damascus has been put into a corner. The swift visit by Syrian Vice President Khaddam to the Qoraitem residence of Al-Hariri on Tuesday afternoon to pay condolences failed to stem the tide of accusations. Lebanese diplomats and observers agree that it would have been absurd for Syria -- or rather the Syrian intelligence -- to involve itself in the murder since, some say, any rational politician in Damascus would have expected the dramatic political consequences that have unfolded, including Washington's recall of its ambassador to Syria for consultations, plus the UN Security Council statement that put Syria in the doghouse for its involvement in Lebanon as it re-invigorates the call for an end to the presence of 14,000 Syrian troops there. The developments on the Syrian front is one of the biggest worries for many Arab capitals at the moment. Cairo and Amman have recently been pressing Damascus to show flexibility in relation to its presence in Lebanon and other elements of its politics that have brought international criticism including its alleged support for Iraqi resistance. Egypt and Jordan are worried that Washington might use the assassination of Al-Hariri to orchestrate a new political -- even a limited military -- step against Syria. These worries do not only, or necessarily, stem from neighbourly compassion with Damascus but also from the public anger that such punitive measures could prompt in Egypt and Jordan, even if there are signs that the Syrian intelligence conducted, or at least gave the green light to the assassination, behind the back of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. "Any action against Syria now could have widespread instability on other countries in the region," an Egyptian diplomat warned. Many Arab capitals are urging Damascus to consider a careful "redeployment" of its troops in Lebanon. Damascus is also advised to minimise its potential intervention in the upcoming legislative elections. Above all, Damascus is being called on to enforce maximum control on its borders with Iraq to prevent any penetration of Iraqi resistance sympathisers. The sorrow in the Arab world over the loss of Al-Hariri is genuine but so is the fear of the complications of the assassination. "It is a huge tragedy that could bring about many disturbing consequences," Moussa said. In their upcoming meeting on 4 and 5 March at the Cairo headquarters of the Arab League, Arab foreign ministers are expected to discuss the impact of Al-Hariri's assassination on Lebanon, Syria and the rest of the Arab world.
