Confrontations between security forces and opposition movements could lessen or could get worse, reports Mohamed Abdel-Baky "All volunteers who collected signatures supporting El-Baradei's demands must send us an SMS telling us where you are, and do not forget to take the necessary measures for your safety." The announcement, along with dozens of others, was published in the "operation room" in Mohamed El-Baradei's supporters' Facebook group. Hundreds of volunteers participated in related activities conducted by the National Association for Change (NAC). Over the past three months, movements for change have been trying various tactics to challenge the regime, and putting more pressure on the ruling National Democratic Party to listen to their demands to amend the constitution. The list of amendments sought by the NAC includes electoral supervision by both local judges and international monitors, allowing Egyptians living abroad to vote, setting limits for presidential terms, and eliminating obstacles to an independent candidate to run in presidential elections. Mapping the opposition movements' tactics suggests that the coming months could witness serious confrontation between the government and these movements. Currently there are three main political forces leading the calls for changing the constitution, each one of them having adopted a different strategy for dealing with the regime. The NAC, led by El-Baradei, the former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is considered an extension of the other two forces, the 6 April Youth Movement and the Independent Campaign For El-Baradei 2011. The NAC was founded in February this year after El-Baradei returned to Egypt and, from a group of opposition figures, replaced the Egyptian Campaign Against Succession. Since then, all group statements have adopted a tactic based on a new rhetoric which tends to avoid directing criticism towards President Hosni Mubarak or the possibility of Gamal Mubarak, the president's 47-year-old son and chairman of the NDP's Policies Committee, standing as a candidate in the presidential elections of 2011. This rhetoric was followed by an action plan to establish NAC offices in all governorates aiming to collect millions of signatures of support. The signatures are being collected by hundreds of young people affiliated to the NAC. The movement has refrained from organising mass protests by its volunteers in any governorate in order to focus on the gathering of signatures and avoid any direct clash with security. NAC has been cautious in terms of organising public events. El-Baradei has visited Mansoura, east of the Nile Delta. "Our top priority now is to bring new members from all over Egypt on board. We need fresh blood to be the key for change for this great country," NAC said in statement released last week. Recently the group announced that a peaceful march will take place Monday, from Tahrir Square to parliament, to deliver a letter to the People's Assembly Speaker Fathi Sorour condemning remarks by two MPs of the NDP who called for protesters to be shot "if they violate the law". In bold contrast, the 6 April movement tends to use conferential tactics by organising protests downtown, calling for changing the constitution and urging social justice. The group's rhetoric is also different in terms of its stand against Gamal Mubarak running for the 2011 presentational elections. "We have several kinds of activities, all of them aiming to bring the attention of the public to what this government has done to us," Ahmed Maher, the general coordinator of the 6 April movement, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Marking its third anniversary, the movement had called for a demonstration in front of the parliament on 7 April against the extension of the emergency law, but security reportedly arrested more than 90 protesters after plainclothes police and anti-riot squads attacked demonstrators with batons. Security forces also targeted members of the media and cameras and tapes were confiscated. Another demonstration staged by 6 April and the Kifaya Movement on 13 April in front of the prosecutor-general's office ended up by the arrest of four activists and others beaten by riot police. The government has responded to the activities of opposition movements by forging a new policy targeting rhetoric and field activities. Maher added that this policy by the security forces "aims to abort any attempt by us" to hold any public events against the regime or support NAC's demands in Cairo or any other city. Several arrests of 6 April members were also made in Alexandria and other governorates. On 27 March, police arrested Tarek Khader, a second year student in Alexandria University. Khader is still in custody. Ahmed Nasser, a lawyer working with NAC in Alexandria, told the Weekly that efforts are now being concentrated on freeing Khader. In the meantime, Maher expects that security will be "less aggressive" with the movements in the coming months, especially after the international support 6 April has received following the recent clashes. "Security forces do not want to add another scandal to their international record. The NDP is also embarrassed after its members urged that demonstrators be shot," Maher added. Egyptians abroad have recently become a headache for the government after the NAC enlisted 15,000 volunteers to collect signatures from Egyptian expats on NAC's calls to amend the constitution. But after the Kuwaiti government arrested and deported more than 20 supporters of El-Baradei, many Egyptians in Gulf countries are now worried they might lose their jobs and be deported if they participate in any activities related to the NAC. "The Kuwaiti government has insulted Egyptian citizens, with the support of the Egyptian government. These people do not pose any national security threat to Kuwait. Why then have they been treated like criminals?" asked Amr Elshobaki, an expert at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies. Several NPD members have been arguing that NAC and El-Baradei's calls for changing the constitution are "a revolution in constitutional legitimacy". Last week, in a televised speech marking 28 years since Israel's withdrawal from Sinai, President Mubarak pledged a fair and transparent election in Egypt.
