What happened in Iran last Friday was nothing short of a political earthquake, writes Mustafa El-Labbad With Ahmadinejad in office as president, the country's conservatives have taken full control of the political scene, something that has not happened since the revolution. Even in Khomeini's life, Iranian politics were never decided by one political group, but rather through the interaction of many forces. From 1989 to 1997, it was Khamenei and Rafsanjani who dominated the political game in Iran. From 1997 until the recent elections, it was Khamenei, Rafsanjani and Khatami who exchanged political concessions. Now, the conservatives are the only voice around. Just one day before the run-off elections, Khatami told me that "reformists will have to support Rafsanjani because an Ahmadinejad victory would be a disaster." Obviously, not all did so. For example, Shirin Ebadi, the Nobel Prize laureate, decided not to vote. The National Guard and the Volunteer Forces have voted in great numbers for Ahmadinejad. Polling stations stayed open past official hours to allow them to do so, something which pro-reform voters still grumble about. In the run-off elections, the turnout was 56 per cent, with Ahmadinejad taking two-thirds of the vote. Apparently, less pro-reform voters showed up in the run-off elections than expected. The conservatives may have won the elections, but they have a rough ride ahead. The country's economy is struggling, social problems abound, and relations with Washington cannot be worse. Should the Iranian nuclear issue be referred to the UN Security Council, Ahmadinejad's victory would be a pyrrhic one. The conservatives will not be celebrating for long. Ahmadinejad's rhetoric may resonate with early-revolutionary ideals, but it is hard to see how it could help Iran at present. A showdown between the conservatives and their US foes is hard to avoid. When it occurs, both the Iranians and the Americans are going to project it as a battle between good and evil, not one for regional influence. The Iranians -- not unlike other nations in the region -- had to choose between bad and worse. Now that it is over, Iran looks like a wagon hurtling down a slippery road.
