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Shifting towards an exit
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 30 - 06 - 2005

Faced with dwindling public support Bush tries to persuade Americans he has a strategy in Iraq, writes Salah Hemeid
Amid growing criticism of his Iraq policy, even within Republican ranks, United States President George W Bush acknowledged the US has been encountering difficulties in ending the insurgency. Yet in a key speech to the nation on Tuesday Bush repeated his opposition to setting a timetable for withdrawal and linked the American presence in Iraq to the US-led war on terrorism. "We fight today because terrorists want to attack our country and kill our citizens, and Iraq is where they are making their stand," he said.
Following talks in Washington with Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jaafari last week Bush insisted that the violent insurgency in Iraq will be defeated and predicted that the US-backed political process underway in the war-ravaged country would lead to victory. He said US troops would eventually withdraw "with honour", but declined to say when.
Al-Jaafari, whose government has already asked the UN Security Council to extend the mandate of foreign troops, agreed that setting a timetable now is impractical and would send the wrong message to insurgents. Later, in London, Al-Jaafari suggested it would take at least two years to build-up Iraqi forces capable of guaranteeing security, a precondition he put for withdrawal.
Bush and Al-Jaafari's meeting came after recent opinion polls suggested that more than half of Americans now think the invasion of Iraq was a mistake. With almost 1,800 US soldiers now dead, even Republicans are getting jittery. Walter B Jones, Republican, North Carolina, has demanded a date be set for US troops to be brought home while Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska accused the White House of being "completely disconnected from reality" in its assessment of conditions in Iraq. Democrats have also stepped up their criticisms, accusing the administration of failing to level with the public. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi called the war "a grotesque mistake", and the recently formed Out of Iraq Congressional Caucus has attracted 50 members. Sen Joseph Biden accused the administration of opening a "credibility chasm" in misrepresenting progress in the war and urged renewed efforts to secure more international assistance.
Increasing numbers of Americans are demanding an honest explanation of how their troops ended up in Iraq in a war that increasingly threatens to become a quagmire and want to see an exit strategy that includes a timetable for withdrawal.
Bush's political offensive to reinvigorate support for the war faces a great many hurdles. The problem for the White House -- and for Al-Jaafari's government -- is that one year after the transfer of power from the US-led coalition to Iraqis the political process is having no impact on reducing the violence. Indeed, the opposite is true, and there has been an upsurge in attacks since the new Iraqi government took office.
Although Iraqis are continuing to join the new security forces in large numbers there is no sign that they are any nearer being able to take control of their own security. The success of Iraqi forces is the lynchpin of Bush's exit strategy. It is widely agreed that the country will slip into a bloody civil war if Washington withdraws large numbers of troops before Iraqi forces are ready to take over.
In the meantime the insurgency is becoming increasingly deadly and showing no sign of waning. As more American soldiers and innocent Iraqis fall victim to daily bombings and terrorist attacks the possibility of political revival is further complicated.
In a change of tack the Bush administration has publicly admitted it is trying to persuade some of the insurgents to join the political process. On Sunday Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged that US officials had met with insurgents following the appearance of reports in a British newspaper. The Sunday Times reported that US officials had held secret talks in a town north of Baghdad with the commanders of several insurgent groups in an attempt to open a dialogue with them. The paper said the first meeting included the Ansar Al-Sunnah Army, Mohamed's Army and the Islamic Army in Iraq. While Ansar Al-Sunnah is known to be a radical Islamic group, connected to Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda, the other two groups are believed to be loyal to Saddam Hussein.
Rumsfeld insisted the talks would not involve negotiations with Jordanian-born Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, and that they were aimed at facilitating efforts by the Shiite-led government to reach out to minority Sunni Arabs, believed to be the driving force behind the insurgency.
"We see the government of Iraq as sovereign. They're the ones that are reaching out to the people who are not supporting the government," said Rumsfeld. "They're not going to try to bring in the people with blood on their hands, for sure, but they're certainly reaching out continuously, and we help to facilitate that from time to time. Characterising the discussions as negotiations is probably not right. They're discussions. And they're discussions primarily aimed at bringing these Sunni leaders, and the people they represent, into the political process."
The new American overture received strong backing from British Prime Minister Tony Blair who said it was sensible for the allies to meet with elements of the insurgency in Iraq to promote stability. "We're simply trying, perfectly sensibly, to pull as many people into the democratic fold as possible," Blair said on Monday.
It is not clear, however, just how the latest administration political offensive will go down with the leaders of the Shia- Kurdish government. Asked about US contacts with insurgent groups, Al-Jaafari said he had no objections to "dialogue with all political forces" as long as they were not engaged in violence. Washington has its own agenda, and is desperate to minimise the costs it is incurring in Iraq. For Iraqis, on the other hand, the main issue is nation building. Which begs the question of whether Washington has a tempting enough carrot to offer the insurgents, and whether it can sell any deal it strikes with them to sceptical Shias and Kurds who dominate the government in Baghdad.


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