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Mubarak will run
Published in Al-Ahram Weekly on 28 - 07 - 2005


Update 28 July 2005:
Mubarak to seek fifth term
Ending months of speculation President Hosni Mubarak said today he would seek a fifth six-year term in the first presidential elections with more than one candidate on Sept. 7.
He also promised constitutional and legislative changes during his next term, on top of the constitutional amendment which in May abolished the old system of referendums on a single presidential candidate chosen by parliament.
Mubarak, 77, said an anti-terrorism law should replace emergency law, in force for 24 years and a major grievance of the political opposition and human rights groups.
Other changes would reduce the powers of the president and strengthen the role of the cabinet, he said.
He promised that as head of state he would ensure that the September elections are "competitive, free and fair."
Mubarak will run
Months of speculation end with today's announcement that President Mubarak will seek a fifth term, report Dina Ezzat and Gamal Essam El-Din
At noon today, in a statement expected to be televised live from his hometown in Menoufiya, President Hosni Mubarak will end months of rumour and counter rumour when he announces his intention to put himself forward as a presidential candidate.
Sources close to the president say Mubarak is expected to offer a short review of his performance as president since taking office in October 1981 and his future plans if -- most commentators would say when -- he wins the first ever multi- candidate presidential elections that are expected to take Mubarak to his fifth and, as close aides suggest, last term in office.
Immediately following Mubarak's announcement the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) political politburo will convene to declare Mubarak the party's nominee for the presidential elections. The politburo includes Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, Parliamentary Speaker Fathi Sorour and Shura Council Chairman and NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif.
On Sunday the Presidential Elections Commission (PEC) announced the elections will be held on 7 September. The commission also announced the nomination process will open tomorrow.
Osama Atawiya, the commission spokesman, explained the registration period will last for one week, closing on 4 August. The official campaigning period, he said, will be between 17 August and 4 September, 19 days during which Minister of Information Anas El-Fiqi has promised candidates will be given equal access to state-run radio and TV channels. The commission also said that registered candidates will have the option to withdraw from the contest, but only before 23 August.
Should a single candidate fail to win at least 50 per cent of the votes a second round run-off will be held on 17 September.
Early indications suggest Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential elections will be effectively restricted to President Mubarak, and opposition MP and chairman of Al-Ghad Party, Ayman Nour. Some commentators, though, suggest that a third serious contender might emerge given the reluctance of the state to see Nour coming second.
Last week, in an address to graduates at the Military Academy, Mubarak dropped heavy hints that he intended to run for a fifth term. "I will do all I can to secure the interests of Egypt and safeguard its national security," Mubarak said.
Mohamed Ragab, the NDP's Shura Council spokesman, told Al-Ahram Weekly that Mubarak's re-nomination comes at a crucial time, when Egypt is once again facing the spectre of terrorism.
"The Sharm El-Sheikh attacks," said Ragab, "make it clear that Egypt needs an experienced leader, capable of standing up to the dangers of terrorism and the challenges of development."
Many observers think Sharm El-Sheikh will bolster Mubarak's campaign. Opposition MP Hamdeen Sabahi believes that in the wake of the terrorist outrage opposition movements will be too intimidated to stage anti-Mubarak demonstrations.
Ayman Nour argued that the Sharm El-Sheikh bombings underline the need for change in Egypt.
"These attacks," said Nour, "reveal once again that democracy is the only answer to the chronic ills afflicting the country, especially religious extremism."
Nour revealed he intends to present the PEC with his nomination papers on Saturday. The chairmen of seven minor parties announced they would contest the elections. The three major opposition parties remain torn between boycott and active participation.
Mamdouh Qenawi, chairman of the Social Constitutional Party (SCP) said his party still had to meet to finalise his nomination.
Others joining the presidential contest include Ahmed El-Sabahi (Umma), Osama Shaltout (Takaful), Wahid El-Oksori (Misr Al-Arabi), Ibrahim Turk (Al-Ittihadi), Fawzi Ghazal (Egypt 2000) and Rifaat Al-Agroudi (Al-Wifaq).
Given the major opposition parties appear to be in favour of boycotting the elections, the participation of these minor parties is essential if the elections are to appear even remotely competitive.
Diaaeddin Dawoud, chairman of the Nasserist Party, said his party's political politburo will meet today to decide on whether or not it will field a presidential candidate. "Most of the party's members," said Dawoud, "are in favour of a boycott."
Thirty-eight members of the higher council of Al-Wafd meet next Saturday to decide their position on the presidential elections. Al-Wafd, which led the call to boycott May's constitutional referendum, is expected to adopt the same approach to the elections. Al-Tagammu, Egypt's main leftist party, announced last week that though it was boycotting the elections it would be actively campaigning against the re- election of Mubarak.
Some opposition groups -- most notably Kifaya -- say they are planning a big anti-Mubarak demonstration in Cairo's Tahrir Square within 24 hours of Mubarak nominating himself.
"Of course he will run," said Hussein, a Cairo taxi driver. According to Hussein and 15 other men and women interviewed by the Weekly, the president is a "good" and "safe" option for the nation in these troubled times. Mubarak, according to one woman who asked to remain anonymous, is "a much better choice than his son Gamal".
It was rumoured that Gamal Mubarak, the younger son of the president who heads the influential NDP Policies Committee could run for this year's elections.
A source close to the president said Mubarak took the decision to run after careful deliberation. "He gave much thought to the situation in and around Egypt. He listened to individuals -- not just advisors and aides -- who argued that it was essential he run for another term."


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