The death of Sudan's vice president could plunge the country deeper into crisis, writes Gamal Nkrumah Business as usual seemed to be the message projected by the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) following the death in a helicopter crash on 30 July of its leader John Garang. "My husband has died but his vision still lives," his widow, Rebecca, told dispirited followers. Salva Kiir, Garang's long-time associate and the chief of the general staff of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA), the armed wing of the SPLM, is Garang's political heir, and clearly means business. But for the political discontent among the southern Sudanese to find a peaceful outlet it is essential the transition of power from Garang to Kiir be smooth. Garang enjoyed a virtually free hand in advancing the interests of the southern Sudanese, though he was careful to champion the rights of all underprivileged Sudanese, be they from the south or north, east or west. Garang had established a reputation as the defender of the underdog and following news of his death several hundred protestors took to the streets of Khartoum, pillaging shops and destroying cars and property. Government forces deployed armoured vehicles to keep the peace, and the city of five million inhabitants remains under a dawn to dusk curfew. Many southern Sudanese fear Garang's death will weaken their position in the government of national unity that was inaugurated on 9 July. It is only three weeks ago that Garang was sworn in as first vice president, a position now occupied by his successor, Salva Kiir. Hopes now rest on Kiir being able to salvage something from the wreckage. "It is essential that the movement holds together and joins the government in Khartoum," urged United Nations Secretary- General Kofi Annan. But there are growing fears that factional fighting within the SPLM could hinder the movement's ability to advance the southern cause. Divisions are rife between southern Sudanese factions. Both Garang and his successor, Kiir, are ethnic Dinka, the most numerous of the southern Sudanese ethnic groups, and their dominance has long been resented by smaller groups. Garang's long-time deputy will face many obstacles in attempting to capitalise on the legacy of his predecessor. According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), signed by the Sudanese government and the SPLA, wealth- and power-sharing arrangements will be followed within six years by a referendum in the south to ascertain whether or not the southern Sudanese want to secede. Although the CPA came about as the result of lengthy negotiations the consensus among Sudan observers is that it is a flawed agreement, not least because there remains considerable confusion over the real objectives of the government in Khartoum. Sudan's current rulers, including Kiir, are certainly in a position to use the apparatuses of state to ease tensions and focus on development. This would strengthen the centrality of the government's role, though most commentators accept that decentralisation and the devolution of power in Africa's largest state is essential to maintaining stability. Such changes will take time, and need to start immediately. There are millions of displaced Southern Sudanese refugees, and they have nowhere left to run. It is essential, therefore, a coherent vision of the future of the country emerge in order for the ongoing humanitarian disaster to end. The worst possible scenario is for that strategic vision to become mired in ethnic squabbles. The ethnic Nuer and Shilluk, who hold sway in the oil-rich Upper Nile province of southern Sudan, are seeking a greater stake in Sudan's new political dispensation. Oil has brought hope to Sudan's war-battered economy, and many southerners hope oil revenues will help fund development and social welfare projects. It is unlikely that Kiir will follow Garang's lead in becoming embroiled in the peace process in Darfur, or in liaising between the Sudanese government and armed opposition groups in the east of the country. He will have his hands full bringing the disparate southern Sudanese factions together. All eyes are on Kiir now. In the past he has consistently confounded sceptics, though his detractors claim he is at heart, and in sharp contrast to Garang, a secessionist and a Dinka nationalist. Whether he will be able to build a strong, unified southern Sudanese front is far from certain -- a decade of moves in that direction have yet to show results. Many southern factions remain outside the framework of the SPLM/SPLA, and they have been notoriously resistant to compromise. Yet it is compromise that is needed now more than ever. The Sudanese opposition is divided between the liberal left and religious right and both will attempt to make political capital out of Garang's death. Indeed Hassan Al-Turabi, Sudan's leading Islamist ideologue, has already accused the Sudanese government of having a hand in the helicopter crash in which Garang died. Will Kiir succeed in uniting southern Sudanese opposition forces under the SPLM's wing? Ultimately, it is the answer to this question that will determine the future of Sudan. The answer, though, is far from clear, which means there is no end yet in sight to Sudan's turbulent recent history. (see obituary p.9)
