Analysts wonder how many people will vote, reports Mustafa El-Menshawy The government hopes for greater voter turnout at the country's first multi-candidate elections. However, several political analysts do not share the government's optimism. They predict that many potential voters would not participate in the polls. "I believe the turnout would not exceed five per cent," Nabil Abdel-Fattah, a researcher at Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Ahram Weekly. Abdel-Fattah explained that there is much public apathy concerning politics in general, and that most people see the electoral process as no more than "a political gimmick that the incumbent President Hosni Mubarak uses to hold on to power". Two leftist opposition parties, Al-Arabi Al-Nasseri and Al-Tagammu, have called for people to boycott next week's elections. The government, in turn, has launched a counter- campaign to encourage people to vote. The national Egyptian TV channels have broadcast televised appeals for people to cast their ballots so that "their dreams and aspirations may come true". The Muslim Brotherhood, deemed the largest opposition bloc with a considerable following, has opted instead to encourage its followers to vote. The brotherhood called on its members and supporters to take part in choosing their next leader and to vote. However, they did not specify which candidate they wanted their supporters to vote for. "I do expect the turnout to be as low as seven per cent," said Abdel-Moneim Abul-Futouh, a leading Brotherhood figure. Abul-Futouh believes the group's calls would not push many of its followers to vote, "because the Brotherhood did not pick one candidate or party for its followers to support." Whatever the case might be politically, Egyptians are less enthusiastic about taking part in elections in general. That was the prevalent view among most analysts. "I believe ordinary Egyptians see voting as a luxury. Making ends meet is the major concern of most people in the country. It is much more important than the polls," Nagwaa El-Fawwal, the head of the National Centre for Social and Criminological Studies told the Weekly. El-Fawwal said the lack of public awareness about the importance of elections or of "genuine competition" among the 10 presidential candidates are also to blame for people's apathy. According to a number of polls, most Egyptians "do not care about political participation," as shown by the 1998 survey by the polling unit of by Al-Ahram Centre for Political and strategic Studies. Gamal Abdel-Gawwad, the head of the unit, warned: "If the turnout goes beyond 25 per cent in the presidential vote, as I expect, that will raise questions ... that there are gross violations and foul play." "The number of polling stations is very small. And, the voting process needs at least three days to avoid serious overcrowding around polling stations," said Ahmed Mekki, the deputy head of the Court of Cassation. Mekki was referring to a decision by the Presidential Election Commission (PEC) to reduce the number of polling stations from the earlier-planned 54,000 to 10,066. Mekki said the number of polling stations should ideally be 18,000 -- with each station having a list of 2,000 registered voters to cast ballots instead of the current 9,000. Mekki, however, said it would be a "great achievement if we have a 15 per cent turnout". The government is under intense pressure to release the correct figures of turnout this year. In the referendum on a constitutional amendment allowing multi-candidate elections, the Ministry of Interior put the turnout at over 50 per cent. However, the Judges' Club said the rate ranged from five to seven per cent. It also cited irregularities by the government. "The most satisfying turnout for us is the real one. The truth should be upheld," said Abdel-Gawwad of Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.
