Sharon is threatening Palestinian democracy because a strengthened Palestinian society is the last thing he wants, writes Khaled Amayreh in the West Bank Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has renewed threats to undermine the upcoming Palestinian general elections, due to take place on 25 January 2006 if all goes according to plan. Speaking during a cabinet session in West Jerusalem on Monday, Sharon said Israel would take unspecified measures to disrupt the elections and undermine Hamas's campaigning. Israel has already arrested around 1,000 Hamas leaders and activists, many of who are thought to be potential candidates for the upcoming elections. The ongoing wave of arrests has forced Hamas to refrain from announcing its candidate list, lest they be arrested by the Israeli army. Some sources close to Hamas have intimated that the names of candidates not yet arrested would only be released a few days, or even a few hours, before actual balloting, for security reasons. Moreover, it is highly expected that political prisoners and hostages kept in Israeli detention as punishment for their political affiliation with Hamas will feature prominently on the movement's local and national election lists. While Sharon didn't say what measures he would sanction to disrupt the first ever multi-party elections in the occupied territories, it is quite easy to predict what the Israeli army could do in this regard. Israel could order the arrest of elections organisers and campaign activists in order to render Hamas off-balance and keep the movement in a perpetual state of anxiety. The Israeli occupation army could also impose further restrictions on the free movement of Palestinians, especially between cities, by erecting more checkpoints and roadblocks. Israeli troops, which are in control of Palestinian population centres in the West Bank, could also resort to draconian measures such as storming ballot centres and even confiscating ballot boxes. However, it is unlikely that the Israeli political leadership will order such stringent measures; this would invite severe international condemnation, even from Israel's guardian-ally, the United States. The same thing can be said about the imposition of curfews on Palestinian towns and villages on elections day. Sharon and other Israeli leaders have been saying that their aim is to weaken Hamas rather than preventing it completely from taking part in the elections. However, it is highly possible that a provocative onslaught against Hamas on elections day or the few days preceding the elections might boomerang and prompt more Palestinians to give their vote to the movement if only to spite Israel. Hamas has actually honoured, nearly meticulously, the tahdia, or calm, reached between Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Sharon at Sharm El-Sheikh in February. Last week, Hamas decided to swallow its pride and refrain from retaliating for the murder by Israel of a Hamas resistance activist in Gaza. However, Israel doesn't seem interested in recognising any moderation on Hamas's part; this would deprive Israel of a valuable propaganda weapon. Indeed, Israel believes that Hamas should continue to be used as a sort of "demonic ghoul"; not so much to prevent a possible European or even American dialogue with the movement, but rather to cover up and divert attention from Israel's intransigence vis-à-vis the core issues of the Palestinian question, for example, the withdrawal from the occupied territories and the creation of a viable Palestinian state. The same logic goes for Israel's efforts to weaken Hamas politically and prevent its integration into the mainstream Palestinian polity, such as the Palestine Liberation Organisation and the Palestinian Legislative Council. Israel realises that strong Hamas representation in the Palestinian political establishment would strengthen the overall Palestinian stance vis-à- vis Israel. Indeed, it is an open secret that a Hamas victory in the upcoming Palestinian elections would serve to strengthen and affirm traditional erstwhile Palestinian demands -- the so-called national constants. In other words, an Islamist elections victory would most likely shield the Palestinian leadership -- i.e. Mahmoud Abbas -- from Israeli pressure and blackmail, something all Palestinians would view positively. This is the scenario Israel really dreads, not the largely propagandistic discourse about Hamas's involvement in terror and dedication to Israel's destruction. This week, Hamas representatives held two secret meetings with Abbas and Fatah organisations centring on the elections and efforts to put the internal Palestinian house in order. According to Hamas leader in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, the two sides reached a general understanding as to what was supposed to be done at the national level in the period leading up to the elections. Abbas reportedly praised Hamas for not responding to Israeli provocations and re- affirmed his rejection of any external interference in the elections. Interestingly, Abbas's remarks have been echoed by imprisoned Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti. According to Palestinian law- maker Faris Qaddura, who visited Barghouti in solitary confinement in a Haifa prison on Monday, the Fatah leader described Hamas as "an authentic Palestinian national movement", saying no elections could have legitimacy without Hamas's participation. Barghouti is likely to be on the top of any Fatah list in the elections and most Palestinian observers believe that his victory is a foregone conclusion. Indeed, elections success of people like Barghouti and Hossam Khadr, another imprisoned Fatah leader who adamantly rejects any Palestinian retreat from the Palestinian refugees' right of return, would undoubtedly be good news for Hamas. Moreover, such a scenario would most likely lead to a strengthening of Palestinian national unity. Certainly, this would be bad news for Israel.
