Following a month-long election marked by violence that left 13 people dead, a new parliamentary chapter is due to open, reports Gamal Essam El-Din On Monday President Hosni Mubarak is scheduled to address a joint meeting of the newly-elected People's Assembly and the consultative Shura Council, delivering a keynote speech that is widely anticipated to outline the reform agenda to be followed during the upcoming parliamentary term. In a meeting with the ruling National Democratic Party's (NDP) newly-elected deputies last Monday, Mubarak argued that even though parliamentary elections were marred by a host of irregularities they still represent a step forward on the road of political reform. Mubarak emphasised that he remains committed to ensuring that the programme outlined in his presidential election campaign is implemented. This includes the abrogation of the 24-year-old emergency law in favour of new anti-terror legislation, the curtailing of presidential prerogatives and an enhanced supervisory role for the People's Assembly. "My election programme was not a matter of empty words and promises," said Mubarak. "It is a programme of action which I vow to implement." Mubarak's speech on Monday is expected to furnish details of the legislative and constitutional reforms promised in the presidential campaign. Sources within the NDP say Article 74 of the constitution is likely to be abrogated. The article, which was adopted following bread riots in 1977, provides the president with sweeping powers in the face of threats to national unity and security. The prerogatives contained in the article, which have not been exercised since 1977, are generally considered obsolete. In the meantime Mubarak has urged his party to make strenuous efforts to reconnect with voters after the NDP's share of Assembly seats fell from 87 to just under 72 per cent. Political analysts and poll monitors agree that the NDP's two- thirds majority was secured largely as a result of government help and the mobilisation of security forces in favour of the party's candidates rather than because it enjoys any real popularity or confidence among the public. Out of 432 candidates officially fielded by the NDP only 145 (33.5 per cent) secured seats. It was only the addition of 166 winning independents to NDP ranks that swelled the party's parliamentary seats to 311, or 71.9 per cent of the total. The tactic of absorbing independent candidates, says Al-Ahram political analyst Amr Hashem Rabie, may well be a sham but it was the only way for the NDP to gain a majority big enough to continue rubber-stamping laws and constitutional amendments. The NDP's miserable performance was compounded by the fact that many of its most senior candidates were trounced at the polls by the banned Muslim Brotherhood. Of the total number of candidates fielded by the MB 55 per cent were elected. MB MPs now form the major portion of the opposition bloc of 112 independent deputies. To their number must be added the nine opposition deputies belonging to the Wafd, Tagammu and Ghad parties. The new Assembly will, then, probably divide into two main camps, with 311 NDP members facing 121 opposition and independent MPs. The results of elections in six constituencies (12 seats) have yet to be decided, as they await final court rulings. Mubarak's Monday speech will be followed by a cabinet reshuffle, expected by the end of this month or early January. Informed sources say the president has two options. The first is to replace current Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif with an NDP reformist- minded official such as the Minister of Industry and Foreign Trade Rashid Mohamed Rashid. The second option is to keep Nazif in office but introduce a large number of new ministers. A change in provincial governors will accompany the cabinet reshuffle.
