Questions of succession are raised following Bouteflika's illness, reports Eva Dadrian Algiers-State secrets are hard to keep and sooner or later the shield protecting them crumbles and the truth is revealed. In the meantime, scenarios are written, and speculations are made. So when President Abdul-Aziz Bouteflika skipped a National Council meeting in 26 November, rumours about his health spread like wild fire, especially that the next day, Algerians learned that their president had missed an important EuroMed summit in Barcelona and he was in France for a "medical check-up". And then the curtain fell and silence prevailed. But was it really silence or was it a non-alarming way of saying to the Algerian people and to the international community that everything was fine and it was business as usual. Yet, political historians recall that a similar situation occurred back in the late 1970s with another Algerian president Houari Boumediene. Terminally ill, Boumediene was secretly flown to Moscow for treatment. He returned to Algiers only to die a few months later. His ill health was kept secret. In view of that past experience and the cult of the secrecy that has become a trademark of Algerian politics, the secrecy surrounding Bouteflika's illness didn't preordain anything good and when rumours started circulating in Algiers and in France that Bouteflika is in a "worrying condition" ordinary Algerians began to ask whether their president's state of health might be more serious than publicly acknowledged. The reality is that in Val-de-Grace, the French military hospital for top officials and foreign heads of state, where he was admitted on 26 November, Bouteflika underwent a major surgery for a stomach ulcer. This, while Algerian and French officials kept playing their cards close to their chest, revealing nothing to the people. "Seventeen days after the admission of President Bouteflika, concerns are deepening," wrote the widely read Al-Watan newspaper. In fact, observers of Algerian affairs pointed out that the events of the past three weeks indicate the lack of trust between Algerians and their national institutions. Moreover, the Algerian people were concerned that they were not better informed about their president and some political commentators wrote that the current state of secrecy reminds them of the politics of "totalitarian and dictatorial" systems. There is no doubt that Bouteflika's Algeria is not different from Boumediene's Algeria, noting en passant that Bouteflika was groomed by Boumediene for years and would have been his successor had the military not stepped in and brought to power Chadli Benjedid, one of theirs. It would be hard to believe that after major surgery Bouteflika would be able to regain the reins of power and occupy once again his presidential office. So "who comes after Bouteflika" is the question that comes to mind. Bouteflika first came to power in 1999 and then was re-elected in 2004 for another five- year term. He cleared hurdles in his path by pensioning whoever could have represented a threat against him. Even, say analysts, people like Belkheir, who could have been a threat but is now the country's ambassador to Mexico. Although Belkheir holds an important position, his chances now are completely reduced for a comeback. While military-General Lamari and General Median have been pensioned and sent home, leaders of other political parties are either "in the pocket" of the establishment or too old, like Ahmed Hocine, to try a comeback. In fact, there is no real opposition in the country with an alternative to offer. Some analysts suggest Ali Benflis, a former presidential candidate and former minister under Bouteflika could try his hand again. But if Benflis re- emerges on the political scene, "this would trigger a war of clans", claims one of his former supporters. On the other hand, some observers believe that former supporters may have a slim chance for a comeback. Hamrouche, however, is a technocrat and will have difficulties playing the required game of realpolitik. With his solid team of experts, who have been with him for over a decade, he could be the one who reforms the economy and especially the financial sector. Currently Algeria is doing well and the country's currency reserves have reached $2.4 billion meanly due to very favourable oil and gas prices.
