Gamal Essam El-Din looks at the likely battle lines in next week's Shura Council vote On Sunday, Intessar Nessim, chairman of the Higher Electoral Commission (HEC), announced that the number of candidates competing in the Shura Council mid-term elections had fallen to 456. "Of the 575 candidates who registered, the papers of 48 were judged null and void," said Nessim, "bringing the total down to 527". Later, he announced the total had fallen to 469 as 57 candidates, mostly ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) members intending to run as independents, had withdrawn and one NDP candidate -- businessman Hishmat Abul-Kheir from Sohag governorate's district of Paliana -- died. The final figure of 456 competing candidates came after 13 candidates, all of them belonging to the NDP, were elected unopposed. The drop in number of candidates disappointed political observers who had expected a more competitive Shura poll. Amr Elshobaki, an Al-Ahram analyst who has studied the 2007 Shura election, said the number of candidates was the lowest for at least a decade. "In 2001, the final list included 697, rising to 720 in 2004, but dropping to 564 in 2007," said Elshobaki. The drop in the number of Shura candidates and the fact that the NDP will win 13 seats unopposed is a sign, says Elshobaki, that the NDP is about to sweep the polls. "The scenarios of 2001, 2004 and 2007, in which the NDP's victory was a foregone conclusion, is about to be repeated again," he predicts. Elshobaki expects more announcements that NDP candidates are standing unopposed in the next few days. Ahmed Ezz, the NDP's secretary for organisational affairs and chairman of Parliament's Budget Committee, is already reported to have toured several governorates in recent days to arrange for the withdrawal of the so-called NDP independents. The number of NDP official candidates has fallen from 92 to 90. Senior NDP officials said earlier this week that 17 would be elected unopposed, though Nessim insisted the current figure stood at 13. The most prominent NDP candidates include chairman of the Bar Association Hamdi Khalifa in Giza; Mohamed Abdallah, former president of Alexandria University; and Minister of Waqf Hamdi Zaqzouq in Daqahliya governorate. NDP Secretary-General Safwat El-Sherif said the party's Shura campaign programme, under the slogan "For You", includes five elements. "Our programme focuses on instituting insurance against unemployment, raising salaries by 30 per cent, expanding social insurance programmes for the poorest families, improving public services and supporting democratisation," he said. There are 45 non NDP party-based candidates running, says Nessim, belonging to 11 opposition parties. This, Elshobaki points out, is slightly up on 2007, when the number stood at 37. "The number includes 20 belonging to the Wafd, Tagammu and Nasserist parties -- the three main opposition parties, and 25 belonging to eight smaller parties," said Elshobaki. Elshobaki expects any real competition in next week's Shura Council polls to be between NDP and Muslim Brotherhood candidates. "But if the security forces intervene to manipulate the election against the Brotherhood as they did in 2007, the contest will be confined to official NDP candidates running against NDP- independents." Brotherhood officials have announced that 14 members of the group will be standing in the elections: 11 in the Nile delta, two each in Cairo and Helwan, and one in the Upper Egyptian governorate of Minya. Brotherhood leaders complain the group's candidates have faced growing hostility from the police in recent days. Ahmed Abu Baraka, a deputy of the People's Assembly and a Brotherhood candidate in Menoufiya, told the Weekly that "his campaign posters were removed by security forces and many of his supporters arrested." Brotherhood leaders say 40 of the group members participating in Shura election campaigns have been detained. Posters bearing slogans, such as "Islam is the Solution", that mix religion with politics are being automatically removed on the orders of the HEC, say senior security officials.
