Nader Noureldeen* explains why food prices have exceeded normal limits during the summer Foreign and domestic factors have united against the best interest of the Egyptian consumer. Egypt's wheat self-sufficiency is a meagre 35 per cent, while sugar stands at 68 per cent, cooking oil at eight per cent and maize at 50 per cent. These products recorded high prices in the international food stocks market, which were in turn reflected in 40 to 80 per cent rises in the local retail market. Locally, the market recorded very high fruit and vegetable prices, stripping the government of its conventional role as market regulator and exposing Egyptian consumers' vulnerability. Drought in Russia, Ukraine and Brazil have caused prices of wheat and sugar to increase, while flooding in South Asian countries pushed maize, rice, oil and cotton prices up. In Egypt, a warm winter caused the wheat yield to drop by 40 per cent. It also helped destroy most fruit crops such as apricot, green apples and peaches, while causing remarkable damage to guava, fig, mango, pear and grape harvests. Prices for these products increased sharply -- three to four-fold -- as compared to the usual levels during this time of the year. The hot and humid summer also took its toll on several vegetables, causing prices to soar to five times the normal level. Tomatoes and green beans recorded the highest price increases out of all vegetables, reaching LE15 per kilogramme during the months of August and September, with lesser increases in squash, cucumber, okra, potato, cantaloupe and watermelon. High temperatures hinder the fertilisation of flowers that produce new crop yields, especially in the case of tomato and green beans. Meanwhile, when it is both hot and humid, pests and insects multiply and infect vegetable plants with diseases. These plants must be treated immediately to avoid crop losses. Unfortunately, the Egyptian chemical pesticides and insecticides market is out of control since the government exercises little supervision over these products. Most of these products are imported from South Asian countries. In addition a new insect, known among Egyptian farmers as the Libyan insect, crossed over into Egypt last summer through our western border and caused much damage, mainly to tomatoes and potatoes, as well as to green peppers and eggplant. While there is little we can do to alter the impact of climate change, certain methods should be followed in order to mitigate the effects of high summer temperatures and humidity. For example, more frequent and nocturnal irrigation is useful, as it helps deal with hot morning weather and make up for high water losses at night. Moreover, effective and non-expired chemical pesticides used before growing the crops may be a good means to protect harvests. The role of agricultural advisors is pivotal as they are able to provide technical advice on how to mitigate the effect of adverse weather conditions on crops. Apparently, the increasingly hot summer weather has become a phenomenon in the whole Mediterranean region. Farmers need not feel they face these new conditions alone. Technical assistance as provided by agricultural advisors is essential. At the same time, the government must enhance plant breeding to produce new species that can adapt to heat, drought and to be more resistant and tolerant to diseases and insects. Fortunately, during the last week of October, most vegetable and fruit prices went down to normal. Tomatoes will remain expensive during November because of continued hot weather, which has caused much damage to young tomatoes. High red meat and poultry prices, meanwhile, have turned animal protein into a rare good for most Egyptians. As such they can barely take any new fruit and vegetable price hikes. * The writer is professor of agricultural resources at Cairo University.
