The development community eagerly awaits the February 12 launch of the Egypt Human Development Report (EHDR 2005), which will present a detailed, comprehensive proposal for an achievable vision of "a future where quality services are at the reach of all citizens and where every household is protected with the security of gainful employment, health insurance, old age pension and a comfortable and affordable home," in the words of lead author, Heba Handoussa. In a brief preview of the report published in the Economic Research Forum (ERF) bulletin, Handoussa stressed that this vision could be achieved as early as 2015. The report proposes a new development formula based on three pillars. The first pillar is billed as a "radical departure from the standard conceptual framework that seeks to reduce poverty by providing handouts to the poor and instead adopts a pro-poor growth agenda that would unleash the country's economic potential." The second is democratisation and decentralisation at lower levels of government that would lead to increased citizen participation and hence a sense of ownership of utilities and services, which would in turn lead to a collective sense of responsibility in the management and sustainability of these services. The third pillar is the provision by the state of full protection to every citizen in terms of social security, health insurance, micro-enterprise credit, and housing mortgages. In addition, the formula includes the targeting of quality in every domain by providing meaningful incentive packages for service delivery and through the allocation of what it terms "extra budgetary resources" towards trainers in the civil service, education and private professions. Central to the formula presented by Handoussa and her colleagues, on which the full report will surely contain further elaboration, is "the new power base" on which rapid economic growth over the next 10 years should be based. This "new power base" consists of segments of society at the lower end of the scale in living standards. The source for job creation and productivity growth is expected to encompass three groups of stakeholders in this new power base: first, about three million jobs would be centred on micro and small enterprises in rural and urban Egypt through the new credit and training programs referred to above; second, the civil service would also form part of this power base as its members benefit from an upgrading of salaries, incentives and training which would also lead to an improvement in service provision according to models of best practice; third, about eight million jobs would be created in the private sector, both small and large, as a result of institutional and policy reforms. Handoussa notes that the vision presented in EHDR 2005 is based on a detailed aggregate macroeconomic model that ascertains the feasibility and consistency of its fiscal and budgetary implications. The model forecasts an annual GDP growth rate of 7.3 per cent and an average annual growth in employment of 3.6 per cent over a 10-year period. It also forecasts a major shift in the overall structure of employment away from the public to the private sector. By the end of the decade employment in the private sector would have grown from 37 per cent to 56 per cent, with almost all the growth taking place in the small and medium enterprise sector. A major overall gain in labour productivity is foreseen by the model mainly as a result of the decline in government employment, which is expected to experience a net elimination of one million jobs by 2015. Handoussa concludes that, "the outcome of the integrated package of proposed projects, programs and policies is doubling of real per capita income by 2015 and the fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) set by the United Nations." Clearly, the Egypt Human Development Report 2005 appears to be a serious effort by 35 eminent scholars to present a comprehensive plan for Egypt's development in the coming 10 years. It deserves serious discussion of its contents by policymakers, development professionals and concerned citizens.
