The victory of Hamas in Palestinian legislative elections may help, not hinder, the peace process between the Arab world and Israelis, writes Muqtedar Khan* Hamas's electoral victory, though surprising in its scale, is understandable. First, Hamas has been the only Palestinian political response to Israeli military and settlement-building operations for over a decade. Second, Hamas provided social services that neither the Palestinian Authority (PA) -- recipient of US and EU aid and Palestinian taxes -- nor Israel, the occupier, provides. Third, unmitigated corruption within the PA and the ability of Mahmoud Abbas -- the choice of the Bush administration -- to deliver neither governance nor freedom, made Hamas a more attractive choice for the Palestinians. Hamas's victory is not only a rejection of corruption in the PA but also a reminder that the roadmap to peace has not alleviated the daily misery and humiliation that Palestinians experience. The promise of peace that Israel's withdrawal from Gaza generated has been lost as unemployment reached nearly 50 per cent, the territory hovering on the edge of chaos with the PA failing to offer law and order still less any major developmental initiatives. Hamas's victory is not just a negative vote against the PA. Just as Israelis turned to Ariel Sharon after the failure of the peace process in 2001, the Palestinians have turned towards Hamas after the failure of the roadmap to peace in search of an alternative. The roadmap to peace has been such a failure that Israel under Sharon had already abandoned it to pursue a unilateral agenda of separation by withdrawing from Gaza and building a wall between the two populations in the West Bank. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have expressed dismay and concern at this turn of events and are lamenting the loss of a peace partner. While Condoleezza Rice has expressed US willingness to continue working with Mahmoud Abbas on all matters, including the peace process, Israel has repeated its unwillingness to work with Hamas. Israel and the US maintain that as long as Hamas' goal remains the destruction of Israel, it cannot be a partner in a peace process it implicitly rejects. While I recognise the potentially explosive situation with Hamas, I humbly submit that Hamas' victory may very well prove to be beneficial to all concerned parties, for the following reasons. First, it is common wisdom that a peace deal acceptable to Likud is acceptable to all in the US and Israel. Similarly a peace deal acceptable to Hamas will be acceptable to all in the Arab and Muslim world. Second, Hamas has always negotiated with the EU, the US (indirectly) and with other Arab interlocutors. The current ceasefire in place since February is a negotiated outcome. While the US, Israel and Hamas may wish to avoid negotiating openly -- given past rhetoric -- it is always possible to negotiate through proxies. The EU and Egypt can play the role of proxies. Now, rather ironically, Israel could have a real partner for peace since Hamas can deliver what the PA could never promise: an end to the nightmare of suicide bombers. The spoiler is now in the saddle and will have to change its outlook, its perspective and its politics if it wishes to remain there. Israel and the US must handle the situation prudentially not petulantly, and give Hamas time and space enough to find a face-saving means to alter its agenda and chart a route to the negotiating table. Recent statements by President Bush and Congressional leaders threatening to cut off US aid to the Palestinians are counterproductive. First, it looks as if the US is punishing the Palestinians for taking calls for democracy seriously. To follow through and freeze aid would also be seen as one more thing that the US is doing to make the lives of Muslims miserable. Moreover, Iran would step in and fill the gap and thereby increase its influence and reduce US influence over the new Palestinian government. Hamas has promised to provide clean and efficient governance and they cannot do so without day-to-day cooperation with Israel. For its limited activities, Hamas has so far relied on funding from Islamist sympathisers in the Arab world. But to govern the occupied territories it will need financial aid from the EU (around $600 million) and the US ($70-150 million) and the taxes that Israel collects ($50 million). Hamas cannot be effective without the support and cooperation of all the three players and hence will have to find a way to assuage Israel's fears and earn its trust. In a sense, Hamas's desire to become a political player and its electoral sweep is a victory for Israel. Now, for the first time, it has direct leverage over Hamas. It can make Hamas look inefficient and incompetent and the Palestinians who have high expectations that their lives will improve may soon turn against Hamas if its promises turn out to be as empty as those made by PA. Hamas's victory also gives great credibility to Washington's claim that it is serious about democracy in the Middle East. It belies the Jihadist claim that the US is anti-Islam. After all President Bush has not only enshrined Islam in the constitutions of two nations -- Iraq and Afghanistan -- he has paved the way to power for Islamists first in Egypt and now in Palestine. Nothing serious can anyway happen until Israeli elections are over in March. It is a good opportunity for all parties to pause until then and ponder the new realities. It will help if the decibel level of the rhetoric is kept low. Hamas must maintain the ceasefire and focus on governance. Israel must recognise that amity between Arabs and Jews cannot be piecemeal. It will have to be peace between all Jews, liberal and conservative, and all Arabs, secular and Islamist, in the area. We now have another window of opportunity to make a breakthrough in this conflict: let's not squander it. * The writer is assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Delaware, and non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institution.
