A new Middle East order is in the making with Islamist resistance movements appearing as key shaping forces. Will this continue? Omayma Abdel-Latif seeks answers In his second televised speech since the outbreak of Israel's barbaric attacks on Lebanon, Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah warned that if the resistance in Lebanon and Palestine was defeated at the hands of Israel, "the Arab world -- governments and peoples -- will be humiliated forever and the Zionists will reign supreme." This was the second time in less than three days that Nasrallah warned against attacking the resistance. In his first speech he repeatedly said that the Arabs had two options: either succumb to what the Zionists -- backed by the US and some Arab regimes -- are dictating, or stand united and face up to Israel. Nasrallah is not alone in his prognosis that the fate of the resistance and the region are at stake. For many Arab analysts and observers, the ongoing confrontation between Hizbullah -- a movement perceived across much of the Arab world as an icon of resistance -- and Israel is in essence a battle around the model of "resistance to Israel" as provided by Hizbullah and Hamas. The warring parties make no secret of the fact that it is also "a battle of wills" to influence the new Middle East order presently in the making. That the Hizbullah-Israeli confrontation heralds the opening of a new era is beyond obvious for many observers. This line of analysis has been strengthened by this week's statement of Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa declaring the death of the peace process. Dubbed self-defence, world powers watch dispassionately as Israel's campaign of slaughtering innocent Lebanese civilians enters its second week with no end in sight. Mainstream global media has meanwhile swung into action, playing its part in force-feeding the public the same anti-Hizbullah propaganda coming from Tel Aviv, framing the resistance movement as provoking an all too peaceful Israel. Serious analysts are racing to understand the full gravity of the moment, many writers drawing parallels with previous historic junctures. For some, the past week's events are reminiscent of 1982, while for others the scene resembles that period leading to 1967 setback. According to Lebanese commentator Nasri Al-Saygh, the Arab world is divided into two camps. On the one hand is the camp of resistance movements like Hamas and Hizbullah, which believe -- and with them large segments of the Arab population -- that the logic of resistance is the most effective defensive strategy. The other camp, according to AL-Saygh, includes Arab regimes that opted out of any military confrontation with Israel and which he believes are isolated even among their own people. "It is for precisely this reason that some Arab regimes lashed out at Hizbullah, because they know how resistance acts put them in an embarrassing situation before their own people, and expose their incompetence," Al-Saygh wrote. Ibrahim Al-Amin, a Lebanese journalist with the daily Al-Akhbar newspaper, voiced the same opinion, arguing that two directions for change are open to the Middle East: an Arab approach which is championed by resistance movements that are nationalist Islamist; and an American-Israeli approach which has some allied Arab regimes under its wings. While some analysts respond that such an assessment is a simplistic reading of a much more complicated reality, they agree that there is indeed a resistance model provided by Hizbullah and Hamas which confronts the West and the current Arab political order with a real dilemma. Neither Hizbullah nor Hamas can easily be dismissed as terrorist organisations when they enjoy grassroots support and came to power through free elections. Hamas formed a government in April after it won in free elections while Hizbullah has 14 deputies in the Lebanese parliament and two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet. According to Raghid Al-Solh, a prominent Lebanese intellectual, both movements are part of the national political and social fabric. "In essence, it is resistance against Israeli aggression and expansionism and against American support for this aggression," Al-Solh told Al-Ahram Weekly. "This is why the battle that is being fought is one of the resistance movements against the Zionist project. Whether or not these movements will have a say in the shaping of the new Middle East order, and whether the rules of the game will change, will rely heavily on the outcome of this battle that has unfolded on Lebanese soil," Al-Solh added. For Charles Harb, professor of social psychology at the American University in Beirut, this battle will make or break Hizbullah and the rest of the resistance movements. "There is an implicit alliance," explained Harb, "between Israel, the US and some Arab regimes against Islamic-led resistance movements, and a decision has been made that the axis which assumingly begins in Tehran should be broken in Beirut." In an interview with Newsweek magazine this week US President George Bush made no secret of the fact that he wanted Arab leaders to pressure Hizbullah at an emergency Arab League summit. "I told them let's make sure this meeting is not the usual condemnation of Israel," he told Newsweek. "To Bush's delight, added the magazine, key US allies offered support." Much depends on whether the resistance can score a breakthrough in its struggle against Israel, thus reinforcing its role as a model and in setting the new rules of the game in Lebanon, Palestine and even Iraq. "Hizbullah will not disappear anytime soon, despite the Israeli decision to terminate it. But unless a major achievement is made, it is likely that it will be weakened," according to Harb. "Some in the Lebanese government would want to use any future ceasefire or truce in order to settle scores with Hizbullah and finish it off. But as long as the Israeli bombing continues, anti-Hizbullah voices will remain hushed," he added. Islamic-led resistance movements are at a crossroads. While they operate within a hostile environment, both domestically and regionally, their pedigree continues to be one of resistance to US-Israeli designs in the region, hence popular support will remain high. "Israel's barbaric attacks against civilians in Lebanon and Palestine, just like US attacks in Iraq, are clearly a message of intimidation for the Arab masses that resistance to US-Israeli designs comes with a heavy price. But the more death they see, the more convinced they become that the resistance is the only way to end ruthless occupation in Palestine, Iraq and Lebanon," Al-Amin said.
