T he US-Iran crisis must be one of the strangest situations a political analyst could encounter. The two sides continue to push tensions to the brink while constantly reiterating their unwillingness to go to war. Part of the confusion is that neither the US or Iran are a uniform entity. Both have their hawks and doves, their clamourers for confrontation and pleaders for calm. Another part has to do with the extraordinary high costs of a third war in the Gulf. So even those who see war as an acceptable option fear the probable repercussions. The problem is that the decision not to go to war is not contingent on presumably good intentions. It takes efforts to avert war, on the part of both the US and Iran and others. It takes wise and rational people in the region and elsewhere in the world to get the two sides to step back from reckless and provocative behaviours that could trigger responses that spiral out of control. In an attempt to forestall disaster, some have urged immediate dialogue between Saudi Arabia and Iran, since the crisis in the Gulf is essentially a regional one that has acquired international dimensions. Abdulaziz Sager, director of the Gulf Studies Centre in Riyadh and Sayed Hossein Mousavian, a former Iranian diplomat who served as spokesman for Iran's nuclear negotiators from 2003-2005, make such an appeal in a joint article that appeared in The New York Times on 14 May beneath the title, “It's time for the leaders of Saudi Arabia and Iran to talk.” They write: “After decades of proxy conflict and frozen ties between our countries, we believe now is the time to explore a new foundation for a lasting peace in our region.” The two authors espouse the “glass is half-full” approach. Despite the differences between their countries, they believe that common ground can be found. For example, both sides have an interest in maintaining good relations with the new governments in Iraq and Iran, in the approaching end of the Syrian conflict, and in respecting Bahrain's sovereignty. Even in Yemen, despite their disagreement over the roots of that conflict, both sides acknowledge the magnitude of the humanitarian tragedy there. The authors conclude that if there is to be lasting security in the Gulf then Riyadh and Tehran must cooperate. The article by Sager and Mousavian may be somewhat overly optimistic, because it downplays the differences between the two sides. For example, Tehran and Riyadh do not see eye-to-eye on the sovereignty of Bahrain, contrary to what the article suggests. What is important, however, is that not only is the article an exponent of the anti-war outlook in both countries, it is unlikely that this outlook would have voiced itself so clearly in a major foreign news outlet without a green light from powers that be in both Riyadh and Tehran. This is a point that can be built on. Still, what needs to be explored further is whether it is possible for the two sides to speak face-to-face. In view of the current mutual escalation, it seems that bilateral dialogue would have to come at a subsequent phase. Now is the time for intermediaries, such as Oman and Kuwait, which have served in this capacity before, and perhaps Iraq could step in as well. Others worried by the spectre of another Gulf war have urged direct talks between the US and Iran, since the Trump administration was the party that triggered the escalation. But, as a 15 May report by the International Crisis Group points out, Iran will not go to the negotiation table with a gun pointing at its head. Also, with increasingly less to lose, if Iran feels its back pressed against a wall, it might lash out in dangerous ways rather than cave in and head to talks. Therefore, the report which appeared on the group's Website on 15 May beneath the title, “Taking the US and Iran off collision course,” suggests that the parties to the nuclear deal activate the financial mechanism they created in order to alleviate the pressures on the Iranian economy, thereby giving Iran the incentive to continue to commit to the agreement and then to talk. As for what the US has to gain from talks, it is an avenue to reducing US burdens in the Middle East. Lending weight to the proposal calling for US-Iranian dialogue is the fact that there are many precedents, whether the talks had to do with Afghanistan, Iraq or the Iranian nuclear programme. In some of these cases, talks began indirectly and evolved into direct negotiations. True, the current standoff is more complicated than ever for a variety of reasons. But the escalation cannot go on forever. At some point the tensions will either erupt in a clash or subside into negotiations. Both outcomes are possible. For the latter to occur, Washington will need to reconsider at least some of the 12 demands that Pompeo listed as prerequisites for talks. For example, it is unrealistic to expect Iran to comply with the demand for a complete withdrawal from Syria or the demand that it halts its missile programme, while it is possible to renegotiate some points of the nuclear accord and to press Iran on the question of its meddling in Arab affairs. At the same time, the Iranian demand that the US return to the nuclear deal is also unrealistic. But Washington could comply, at least in part, with the demand that it lifts the sanctions it re-imposed on Iran. The foregoing ideas require earnest and extensive discussion. As our region stands on the brink of an abyss, I can see no subject more urgent. As for the logic that insists “whoever isn't with us is against us,” it has been tried before with dire results. 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The writer is a professor of political science.
