In a kind of verbal war, or, better, Twitter war, US President Donald Trump has been posting tweets about Iran and his disapproval of Tehran's recent ballistic missile test and regional interventions. In an interview with the US TV network Fox News on Sunday, Trump said that the “Iran [nuclear] deal was the worst agreement ever negotiated,” referring to the agreement negotiated by his predecessor Barack Obama and the P5+1 group of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. Iranians thus woke up on Monday morning wondering if they would now have to worry about the future of the nuclear agreement under the Trump presidency. The answer may lie in remarks made by US Vice-President Mike Pence, who told the US channel ABC that Iran's ballistic missile testing and support for the Houthi rebels in Yemen were examples of what was irritating the US president. For politicians in Tehran, there are various options to choose from, but for the time being the government of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has decided to be careful about what is said in public and not to try to tap into nationalist sentiments. Perhaps for Trump and his administration internal issues have the priority over steps taken to cancel the Iran nuclear deal, but his warning tone has represented a challenge for diplomacy and a way of signalling a new approach to the Middle East region. Iran claims that its missile programme is for defensive purposes. However, in the light of its hostile relations with some of its neighbours in the region, some may see the tests as being unfriendly. UN Security Council Resolution 2231 calls for Iran to refrain from activities related to nuclear-capable missiles for eight years, but according to diplomats the language is not legally binding and cannot be enforced with punitive measures. “Iran is called upon not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology,” the resolution says. Western powers involved in the Iran nuclear talks have asked Iran not to make any provocative acts that could harm the nuclear deal. Rouhani has stated that all the parties involved in the nuclear deal should adhere to it since it is an international agreement. This could mean that Iran has recognised that nations have responsibilities to the international community and not just rights, despite the desire by the country's conservatives that Iran withdraw from the deal. His words could be a reminder for hardliners inside Iran that if they jeopardize the deal they are in fact jeopardizing Iran's international reputation and security and not just the reputation of Rouhani. It is still too early to discuss the possibility of a military confrontation between Iran and the US or if the Iran nuclear deal will be withdrawn from by the US. However, it is not too early to talk about what can be done to prevent any worsening of the situation in the region, among other things damaging the current talks between the Syrian opposition and the government of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, which is supported by Iran. The good news is that Russia will not let Iran destroy efforts to end the five-year conflict in Syria, and the Iranians are quite aware of their need to be supported by Russia in the UN Security Council in case the tension rises. Rouhani may also need to support the nuclear deal through thick and thin, as it was his main achievement during his first four years in office, and he will want to use it to run for a second term in the presidential elections in May. However, hardliners in Iran may hope he will lose the battle, even if this means the endangering of Iranian national security. Everything will depend on the way Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei handles the situation, whether giving the upper hand to the president and his government or to the hardliners. Iran's reaction to Trump's recent executive order excluding Iranian nationals from the US and the possible implications of this for the upcoming presidential elections has been mixed. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced that Iran would take “proportionate legal, consular and political action”. However, hardliners in Iran are pointing to the order as additional evidence that Rouhani's engagement with the West has failed, suggesting that this issue will become a rallying point for those inside Iran who are trying to derail Rouhani's bid for re-election. Rouhani's administration has tried to downplay such problems by emphasising improving political and economic ties with Europe. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for European and American affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi recently stated that “the level of Iran-Europe relations is greater than ever,” pointing to the recent visit of the French foreign minister to Iran as evidence that all sides remain committed to the nuclear deal. The next two months will be critical in determining not only the fate of the Rouhani administration, but also whether Iran's leaders will continue to accept his vision of diplomacy as a path for increasing the country's influence in the world and growing its economy. If Tehran does not continue on this path of engagement and compliance with the nuclear deal, then the consequences should worry the Iranian people into paying more attention to Trump's tweets. But it is still too early for this to be necessary, and as former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad once said about Iran-US relations, “the Americans are good at baseball, and the Iranians are good at backgammon.”
